An advertisement featuring an image of a family is seen in an elevator at Beijing Perfect Family Hospital, in this file pic from Nov 23, 2022. With fewer babies and more deaths, China’s population fell for a fourth straight year as policymakers face a demographic crisis in the making. — Andrea Verdelli/The New York Times
DECLARING childbirth a patriotic act. Nagging newlyweds about family planning. Taxing condoms.
To get its citizens to have more babies, the Chinese Communist Party has pulled almost every lever at its disposal – but it has little to show for it.
For the fourth year running, China reported more deaths than births in 2025, as the birth rate fell to a record low and the population grew smaller – and older.
The government said 7.92 million babies were born last year, down from 9.54 million in 2024. Deaths climbed to 11.31 million.
Births per 1,000 people fell to 5.63, the lowest level recorded since the founding of the People’s Republic of China.
The bleak demographic figures were released alongside economic data showing growth of 5% in 2025 – a reminder that even steady headline growth is not easing deeper structural strains.
Falling birth rates are a global problem, but China’s is particularly acute. Fewer babies today mean fewer workers tomorrow to support a rapidly expanding cohort of retirees, all as economic confidence weakens.
“China is facing a severe challenge posed by an extremely low fertility rate,” said Wu Fan, a professor of family policy at Nankai University.
China’s leaders have doubled down, even as demographers warn the decline may now be irreversible. Once fertility drops below a certain threshold, populations tend to keep shrinking.
President Xi Jinping has urged the creation of a “new type of marriage and childbearing culture”, calling on officials to shape young people’s views on “love and marriage, fertility and family”.
At the local level, the response has often been clumsy: tracking women’s menstrual cycles, discouraging “medically unnecessary” abortions and leaning heavily on propaganda.
Many young people have reacted with indifference.
On Jan 1, authorities imposed a 13% value-added tax on contraceptive drugs and condoms. While officials did not frame it as a pro-natalist measure, few were convinced.
Jonathan Zhu, 28, said the price rise would not change his habits.
“I’ll still use them,” he said, citing financial pressure as the reason he is putting off fatherhood.
His girlfriend, Hu Tingyan, 26, agreed.
“I don’t feel the time is right yet,” she said, adding that the cost of condoms had no bearing on whether she wanted children.
On social media, the policy was met with mockery.
Many users noted that condoms remain far cheaper than raising a child. Others pointed out they serve more than one purpose.
“Which ‘genius’ came up with this brilliant move?” wrote Ke Chaozhen, a lawyer in Guangdong. “The state is urging marriage and births in such a subtle way – are they afraid marriage and family lawyers will go out of business?”
Other baby-boosting measures – cash handouts, housing subsidies and even rewards for matchmakers – have also failed to move the needle.
“The empirical evidence from other countries is that monetary incentives have almost no effect on fertility,” said Wang Feng, a sociology professor at the University of California, Irvine.
For young Chinese, the deterrents are piling up: high housing and education costs, stubborn youth unemployment, a property crisis and a thin social safety net that leaves many dependent on their parents.
“With China’s economic woes, young people may want to wait and see,” Wang said. “That’s not good news for raising fertility.”
The crunch has arrived sooner than expected.
Just a decade ago, officials were still dismantling the one-child policy, allowing two children in 2015 and three in 2021.
The delay has left Beijing with little time to shore up underfunded pension and health-care systems.
The working-age population is already shrinking. By 2035, the number of people aged 60 and over is projected to reach 400 million.
Reluctance to pay into the pension system is growing, especially with retirement ages still among the lowest in the world, despite a long-delayed increase announced last year.
Jia Dan, 46, sees the shift up close. He began hosting matchmaking events in Beijing in 2012.
The business boomed – but the trend has since reversed.
“It’s always the men who come back,” he said. “Women rarely attend more than once.”
More striking, he added, is how few people want to marry at all.
“You can really feel it,” Jia said. “The number of young people who actually want to get married is shrinking. More and more just don’t want to do it anymore.” — ©2026 The New York Times Company
This article originally appeared in The New York Times
