The Amity Circle brings together a small number of individuals from the region with experience at ministerial and government levels in the fields of diplomacy, foreign policy, international relations, defence, finance, trade, and related subjects. —Asean
THE headlines make for grim reading.
To the series of conflicts such as the dire humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip and the fragility of efforts to launch a peace process in Ukraine, as well as the many other conflict situations in different parts of the world, another disturbing development was added recently: The outbreak of military clashes between India and Pakistan.
The latter two countries were not only key participants in the groundbreaking 1955 Asia-Africa Conference in Bandung but were also two of its five cosponsors. Lest it be forgotten, among the Bandung 10 Principles’ key tenets is the peaceful settlement of disputes, not an overly abundant quality today.
What are the conditions that allows for diplomacy and dialogue to find traction? To arrest a downward spiral of a vicious cycle of mistrust, insecurity, tension, and conflict, and to replace it with a virtuous cycle of strategic trust, mutual security, stability, and prosperity?
In essence, how can diplomacy, negotiation, and dialogue be placed front and centre as the preferred modalities to meet and overcome the seemingly intractable challenges of our time?
How is it that at critical junctures in interstate relations, in certain cases past, the unequivocal choice was made to follow the path of diplomacy, negotiation, and dialogue, while in other cases open tensions and open conflict were allowed to fester and erupt?
Such and other related questions motivated me in 2023 to seek likeminded individuals from the region and to engage in a common cause: The promotion of diplomacy, negotiation, and dialogue as statecraft.
The Amity Circle was thus born. It brings together a small number of individuals from the region (currently from Australia, Brunei, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, South Korea, Singapore, and Thailand) with extensive policy experience at ministerial and head of government levels in the fields of diplomacy, foreign policy, international relations, defence, finance, trade, and related subjects.
Though views and perspectives may differ, all are united in our belief in the efficacy of diplomacy, negotiation, and dialogue as the preferred modalities to address the challenges of our time.
As an endeavour, the Amity Circle is step-by-step in nature, allowing for robust and candid discussion, though always focused on identifying pathways towards diplomacy, negotiation, and dialogue as policy responses.
At its most recent retreat in Kuala Lumpur in April, an unmistakable recognition prevailed of the increasing headwinds against diplomacy and multilateralism. That deficit of trust appears to be deepening between key capitals, that the risk of open conflict because of miscalculation, as well as because of overt acts of aggression, is highly present.
At Amity Circle's most recent retreat in Kuala Lumpur in April, an unmistakable recognition prevailed of the increasing headwinds against diplomacy and multilateralism.
Yet there was also recognition that crises often created opportunities. Some of Asean’s most progressive periods of institutional development, the so-called architecture-building, occurred in response to crises.
Today, before South-East Asia looms an almost perfect arc of instability and uncertainties – from South Asia, North-East Asia, and to the Pacific in the east. Indeed, action-reaction dynamics are currently in motion between two of the region’s key countries, India and Pakistan, with the attendant risk of conflagration with potentially wide-ranging ramifications.
Truth be told, almost all the present tensions in the Asia-Pacific stem from well-recognised and long-standing disputes.
Though the parties to these disputes have yet to permanently resolve them, until the recent past there was a capacity, however informal, tacit and fragile, to manage the potentials for conflict. In essence, to do no harm.
Today, many of these long- simmering competitive dynamics and disputes are once again resurfacing, fuelled by renewed geopolitical competitions.
As if geopolitical competition in the traditional political-security domains does not suffice, fragmentation is being projected to ever-wider domains: the economy, technology, and global common issues.
Momentum is building towards trade wars, for instance, testing already fragile economies and risking hard-won gains in many of the region’s economies. Peace-making is proving fragile, as evident in the Middle East and Ukraine.
The United Nations is sidelined and rendered ineffective by sharp divisions among its member states, not least the veto-wielding permanent members of the Security Council.
In our region, Asean continues to grapple with the complex situations in Myanmar and the South China Sea. In South-East Asia’s case, it is a source of great encouragement that Malaysia, as Asean’s current chair, is demonstrating a keen awareness that Asean must redouble its efforts, engaging itself both in formal and informal conflict management efforts at the highest level.
In the face of such complex and competitive dynamics filled with uncertainties, diplomacy and dialogue struggle to find traction. Besides the well-known and conventional hurdle in the form of interstate competition, internal and national dynamics tend to militate against the adoption of diplomacy and dialogue as modalities to address issues. Diplomacy and dialogue are incorrectly perceived as signs of weakness and lack of resolve. They also face headwinds in the form of foreign policies that are overtly transactional, with less emphasis on the principles of mutual respect and benefits.
The Amity Circle’s defining character is its belief in the efficacy of diplomacy, negotiation, and dialogue. As the region confronts real threats to the hard-won peace dividends it has long enjoyed, it is incumbent that concrete efforts be made to arrest the current downward spiral.
As leaders of Asean convene in Kuala Lumpur for their summit this week (May 26-27), a clarion call in favour of diplomacy, negotiation, and dialogue in responding to the present challenges is essential.
For instance, the utilisation of the myriad Asean-initiated fora, such as the Asean Regional Forum (of which both India and Pakistan are members, and also one of the few remaining fora where North Korea sits together with some of its declared enemies) and the East Asia Summit (where the China and United States are participants at a leaders’ level) can provide safe spaces for diplomacy, negotiation, and dialogue to take root. There’s much at stake. – The Jakarta Post/Asia News Network
Marty Natalegawa is a former Indonesian Foreign minister.
