Does the world need another war?

It was 9.30am on Feb 28, 2026, when Tehran was rocked by an attack by the US-Israeli joint forces, targeting key military facilities and the Iranian leadership. While the Iranians did not respond immediately, as we are now aware, the war in Iran has now entered its third week and counting.

Markets have reacted, with the most profound move seen in the price of oil, which has jumped more than 50% since the war began. The United States, in its defence of making the first move, has used multiple reasons to justify its action, but these are seen as mere excuses, as the current administration is seen as a mere puppet of the Israeli leadership.

Nuclear capabilities

Among the many excuses used by the United States was that Iran was just two weeks away from developing a nuclear weapon, although the United States had claimed that it had obliterated Iran’s nuclear infrastructure just in June last year.

Another reason for the United States to strike Iran was that the president had a “good feeling” that Iran was going to strike Israel, and hence, the United States decided to take a pre-emptive strike. This was the narrative that was communicated to the world by none other than the White House Press Secretary, Karoline Leavitt.

US President Donald Trump himself said that the reason for the strike in Iran was to facilitate regime change, as he believed that the country under the Supreme Leader is oppressing its people, and it is time to give Iran back to its rightful people. Well, guess what? Iran has just appointed another Supreme Leader of the same surname.

All about oil

Following Trump’s move on Venezuela in early January, it now has control of enormous oil reserves, and with its move to declare war on Iran, together with Israel, the key objective is again economics, and the economics here is nothing but oil.

Iran has the world’s third-largest proven oil reserves with just over 200 billion barrels of oil and is presently the world’s fourth-largest producer of oil at about 3.5 million to four million barrels per day. More importantly, Iran has some 12% of global oil reserves, equivalent to a quarter of the reserves that originate from the Middle East.

Iran’s geographical position is also of significance as it controls the Strait of Hormuz, where some 20% of global oil is transported, as it is the sole sea passage from the Gulf region to the rest of the world, especially to China. In addition, the narrow straits are a key sea passageway not only for oil, but for many other products in and out of the Gulf, which could also derail the supply chain as well as impact key sectors.

Going all out?

Since Trump came to power just over 14 months ago, the United States has been involved in multiple conflicts, but none as severe as the war in Iran. Under Trump, the United States has introduced a new defence strategy that will allow the United States to have “military dominance in the Western Hemisphere” – stretching from the Arctic to Argentina. Although some of the United States’ actions are outside this new defence mantra, the key point is that the United States has been involved in at least eight attacks since Trump took office in January 2025.

The world by now has lost trust in Trump, as this is a man who does not care what he does and just carries out military missions based on his own whims and fancies. He has no respect for international law, and neither does he care that the United States needs to respect the sovereignty of nations.

Trump’s Board of Peace is a laughing stock, as there is no peace when it comes to Trump. Trump’s speech when taking office last year was also full of lies when he declared that “I’m going to stop wars”. His obsession with getting the Nobel Peace Prize is another joke, and so is his idea that he has stopped eight wars.

The US action on Iran was not based on any intelligence agencies’ feedback but on mere whispers in Trump’s ears by his son-in-law Jared Kushner, US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth. The US action on Iran is nothing but an economically-centric move, and at the same time, to assist Israel and champion the latter’s cause.

The end game?

The United States is struggling to provide answers as to its reasons for the strike on Iran, and it does not have a game plan as to how and when the war in Iran will end. Irrespective of the outcome of this war on Iran, Israel will continue its march towards dominance against other Middle East sovereign nations until its objective is achieved, that is, expanding its geographical reach in the Middle East that will emerge as the Greater Israel state.

As for the United States, the war in Iran is not going to end “nicely” but rather with huge casualties in terms of damage to the US’ reputation globally (but of course, Trump does not care what others think of him) as well as financially.

The war in Iran costs US$1bil per day, and for a nation with US$38 trillion in debt, a war is a costly affair. The elevated oil prices will be damaging to the United States in the form of higher consumer prices, which in turn will lift core inflation prints even higher and potentially negate any rate cuts that the US Federal Reserve can make for the rest of the year.

The United States and Israel have three choices when it comes to ending this war. One option is for the United States to recognise the newly elected Supreme Leader and work with Iran to reach an amicable solution with respect to Iran’s nuclear programme (if any). This will be seen as a win-win for both the United States and Iran, as they both recognise the need to go back to negotiations with respect to Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

In the second option, the United States could eat humble pie by just declaring victory and withdrawing its military assets from combat positions. In this scenario, the winner will be Iran, as the United States will be left licking its wounds for a failed mission when it comes to its objective of taking control of Iran economically.

The last and deadliest option is the third option, where the United States sends its ground troops into combat while the Iranians continue to attack US assets in the region, drawing other Middle East countries into an endless war.

This is the worst option for all and is damaging for capital markets and asset prices. Trump’s best option, having started this war on Iran, is to retreat gracefully, or in other words, from declaring war on Iran to running away from it.

In short, from “Iran to I-ran”. After all, the world does not need another war, what more when many other Middle East countries are also dragged into it, plus their allies, which could even trigger World War III.