PETALING JAYA: Stock exchange operator Bursa Malaysia Bhd
, which reported third quarter ended Sept 30, 2026 (3Q26) results on Oct 28 that were largely in line with market expectations, may see a boost to trading vibrancy and activity from a number of initiatives in the coming year.
Despite stable earnings, analysts remain cautious of the company’s outlook.
They point to the expansion of the benchmark FBM KLCI to 50 constituents from 30, a number of large initial public offerings (IPOs), the rollout of the MY Value Up programme, dual listings with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the potential downgrade of Indonesia’s stock exchange by index operator MSCI as key catalysts to boost trading activity.
CIMB Research, which reiterated a “hold” call on the stock with a target price of RM8.65, expects 4Q26 earnings to soften as trading activity moderates towards year-end, while investments in talent and technology would keep costs elevated.
“We pencil in equity average daily volume (ADV) of RM2.6bil to RM2.7bil in 4Q26, below the nine-month 2026 (9M26) level of RM3.4bil, as cautious investor sentiment and geopolitical uncertainty weigh on participation,” it said.
It said at 23 times financial year ending Dec 31, 2026 (FY26) to FY27 price-earnings, the company trades broadly in line with its 10-year historical average of 22.6 times.
“We see limited scope for a re-rating without stronger trading activity or clearer evidence that revenue growth can outpace costs,” it added.
The brokerage said the company’s FY26 to FY27 dividend yield of 3.9% provides some income support.
“Our FY26 to FY28 earnings forecasts assume equity ADV of RM3.1bil to RM3.3bil and 96,900 to 105,100 derivatives average daily contracts,” it said.
TA Research, which maintained a “buy” recommendation, has lowered the target price to RM8.90 from RM9.55, while revising expense projections upwards to account for rising cost pressures, particularly higher-than-expected staff costs, and continued investments in technology and cybersecurity.
It has also revised FY26 to FY28 net profit forecasts lower.
Derivatives trading could remain supported by commodity price volatility arising from energy supply concerns linked to geopolitical tensions, El Nino-related weather disruptions and forest fires.
“However, trading activity may moderate should volatility subside. Key downside risks include prolonged geopolitical tensions, tighter global financial conditions and persistent foreign outflows, which totalled RM6.1bil in 9M26,” it said.
BIMB Securities Research has maintained a “buy” recommendation with a target of RM9.30, noting that the stock continues to offer an attractive total return of 20.7%, inclusive of dividend yields, and sees the recent pullback in share price as an opportunity for investors to accumulate.
“The IPO pipeline remains healthy, with more than five Main Market listings expected, including IOI Property-REIT, KK Mart Retail Bhd and Big Caring Group Bhd.
“This steady flow of new listings is likely to sustain investor interest and support securities market trading activity,” the research house said.
“Additionally, the potential reclassification of the Indonesia Stock Exchange by MSCI from emerging market to standalone market status could benefit Malaysia through possible foreign fund inflows,” it added.
HLIB Research has maintained a “buy” call and a target price of RM9.38, while factoring ADV assumption of RM3.05bil on key catalysts such as the FBM KLCI’s expansion of constituents to 50 from 30, the 16th general election to be likely held next year and the possible downgrade of Indonesia’s stock exchange to trigger a realignment of fund flows that potentially benefit regional stock exchanges.
