KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia is among Asia-Pacific economies expected to benefit from the artificial intelligence (AI)-driven technology export boom, which is helping offset the impact of higher energy costs, according to S&P Global Ratings.
In its Economic Outlook Asia-Pacific Q3 2026: AI-Exposed Markets To Outperform, S&P said economies with relatively large technology manufacturing sectors were seeing stronger export performance amid robust AI-related demand.
“In most of the economies where the importance of tech manufacturing is relatively high, the favourable impact of the AI-related tech export boom outweighs that of the unfavourable energy shock,” Asia-Pacific chief economist Louis Kuijs said.
S&P said upward revisions to gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts were more likely for markets recording strong technology shipments, including Malaysia, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand.
It expects technology exports to continue growing strongly in 2026.
This contrasts with the downward revision to growth forecasts S&P have made since end-2025 for India, Japan, New Zealand, and the Philippines, where the impact of the energy stress dominates.
“In all, we have kept our baseline 2026 GDP growth forecasts for Asia-Pacific excluding China unchanged from March at 4.5%. We see 2027 growth at 4.4%.”
For China, S&P maintained its growth forecast as stronger export momentum offsets weaker domestic demand.
“China's domestic economy is likely to stay subdued amid weak housing, fiscal restraint and low confidence, even as export prospects remain solid,” Kuijs said.
S&P expects monetary policy across the region to tighten modestly as central banks balance core inflation and currency pressures against the need to support economic growth.
Its baseline forecast assumes disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will gradually ease in the second half of 2026, although global oil prices are expected to remain elevated in the coming months before gradually declining.
S&P cautioned that US tariff levels on Asia-Pacific economies, as well as the differences in rates across the region, could rise again.
It estimated that effective US tariffs in April 2026 stood at 23% for China, 14.6% for Indonesia and between 2% and 10% for other Asia-Pacific economies.
