Washington: Kevin Warsh is about to make his first appearance before Congress as Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman, and during two days of testimony he’ll have new US inflation data to parse with lawmakers.
Tomorrow’s House Financial Services Committee hearing, which begins at 10am in Washington, will be preceded by June consumer price figures from the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS).
Then on Wednesday, shortly after the BLS releases producer price data, Warsh will testify before a Senate committee.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect both reports to show some relief following a surge in prices from March to May.
The recent decline in petrol prices likely helped drag down the consumer price index, which may notch its first monthly decline since the onset of the pandemic in 2020.
The producer price index, though, could show upstream inflation pressures continuing to build as the Iran war’s energy shock kept working its way through the economy.
Economists see the 12-month change in the core gauge, which excludes food and energy, accelerating to 5.2% from 4.9%.
Several other Fed officials are also slated to speak in the coming week, in a sign that the quiet which descended over the central bank after Warsh took office may be starting to lift.
Highlights include a speech today from Fed governor Christopher Waller; remarks on Wednesday from New York Fed president John Williams and Fed governor Lisa Cook; and speeches on Thursday from Fed vice-chair Philip Jefferson, Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan, and Kansas City Fed president Jeff Schmid.
Rounding out the US calendar are an update on retail sales on Thursday plus data on Friday on industrial production, housing starts and consumer sentiment.
In Canada on Wednesday, officials are widely expected to keep their key rate at 2.25% for a sixth meeting.
The Bank of Canada continues to balance downward pressure on inflation stemming from trade turmoil with the United States against upward momentum from the Middle East conflict.
Higher gas prices have pushed headline inflation to 3.2%, even as core measures remain subdued.
June existing home sales and housing starts may show continued improvement, extending a gradual recovery after a prolonged period of weakness.
Despite two consecutive quarterly contractions, recent data point to a second-quarter (2Q) rebound.
Elsewhere, a possible rate hike in South Korea, growth data in China, and the UK’s annual Mansion House speeches are among the highlights.
A highlight in Asia will be the Bank of Korea’s policy decision.
Since taking the helm in April, governor Shin Hyun Song has warned that inflation, solid economic growth, a weak won and surging home prices all point to tighter monetary policy, and economists expect him to put his words into action on Thursday by raising the base rate to 2.75%.
The main regional data release comes on Wednesday with China’s 2Q gross domestic product (GDP).
Growth is estimated to have slowed to 4.5% year-on-year, dragging the year-to-date rate to 4.8%.
The figures may underscore the divide between solid exports and sluggish domestic demand.
On that note, China’s retail sales, due the same day, are expected to have slipped again in June after declining in May for the first time since 2022.
Also publishing GDP figures in the coming week are Singapore, where growth is seen slowing a tad, and Malaysia.
India updates on price trends with its release today of the June consumer price index.
The gauge is forecast to accelerate to 4.3%, in what would be the fastest advance since 2024.
That’s still below the Reserve Bank’s 5.1% target for the fiscal year, but could prompt more hawkish comments when the central bank next sets policy on Aug 5.
Australia releases a pair of sentiment gauges; the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index has recently slumped toward two-year lows, while the National Australia Bank business confidence reading may stay negative for a fifth straight month.
India releases its June jobless rate on Wednesday, and trade data are due during the week from China, Singapore and India.
The United Kingdom will take the limelight with the release of monthly GDP on Thursday that may show muted growth, along with some appearances by policymakers.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will deliver what’s likely to be her final annual speech to the Mansion House in the London tomorrow, given that Andy Burnham shows no inclination to keep her on after his impending appointment as prime minister.
Bank of England (BoE) governor Andrew Bailey will speak at the same event, having testified to Parliament earlier in the day on his institution’s latest assessment of financial stability.
And BoE chief economist Huw Pill is on the calendar for appearances today and on Wednesday.
In the eurozone, a blackout period in advance of European Central Bank’s next rate decision will start on Thursday.
Before then, speakers will include Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel today and Bank of Italy governor Fabio Panetta on Wednesday.
Eurozone industrial production for May comes on Wednesday, followed on successive days by trade figures and a final take of inflation.
In Switzerland, the central bank on Wednesday will publish a summary of the discussion around its June quarterly decision.
And in eastern Europe, Romanian inflation today and possible discussions on a budget bill in Bulgaria will be among the highlights.
Argentina’s June inflation report set for tomorrow is likely to show that consumer prices eased for a third month.
Some local analysts see the first sub-2% print since August.
That would be welcome news for President Javier Milei, whose public standing has taken a pounding over his handling of graft allegations against his cabinet chief. — Bloomberg
