Dubai Chocolate faces pistachio crunch

Dark chocolate and pistachio cake Patisserie Woo. PHOTO: PATISSERIE WOO

SO much depends upon a tiny green seed, bathed in sun and air, grown on a bushy tree.

The humble pistachio has taken the world by storm, lending its vibrant colour and rich, earthy flavour to cakes, cookies, ice cream and, most recently, the dizzyingly popular Dubai Chocolate – a thick, Instagrammable chocolate bar filled with pistachio-tahini cream and kataifi (shredded filo pastry).

But the ongoing war in Iran, which has disrupted shipping and trade, is casting a shadow over its time in the sun. In March, pistachio prices rose to an eight-year high of US$4.57 (S$5.86) a pound, according to global agrifood and commodity intelligence platform Expana.

Iran is the world’s second-largest producer of the nut, accounting for a fifth of global pistachio production and a third of exports, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

The conflict has worsened an already constrained situation, a nut market analyst tells Bloomberg. Supply has been curtailed by an underwhelming harvest and domestic unrest.

It is now crunch time for Singaporean bakers and chefs, who have to pay a premium to meet growing demand. As Melissa Woo – founder of home-grown bakery brand Patisserie Woo – has found, even Sicilian pistachios are more expensive, rising by around 15% to 30% since February.

Meanwhile, supply chain disruptions are pushing businesses such as dessert manufacturer Annabella Patisserie to transition to a higher-grade pistachio paste to maintain product quality and consistency. The move costs the company around 35% more.

Other businesses have weathered these geopolitical blows with minimal impact, thanks to strong relationships with their suppliers. However, they anticipate stronger headwinds in the near future.

“Our supplier has been holding the pistachio prices steady for now, but has hinted at increases in the next month or so,” says The Dandy Collection group chef Raj Kumar, who is expecting at least a 10 to 15% rise in prices.

Meanwhile, local chocolatier Chocoelf’s Iranian supply has come to a complete halt due to the war, and pistachios from alternative sources are 40 to 50% more expensive.

While the overall impact on its business is contained for now – Chocoelf’s bestsellers remain its kaya chocolate bars and sugar-

free chocolates, which do not contain pistachios – co-founder Joe Lee says his profit margins are lower.

“We do have concerns that in the long term, should the war in Iran persist, we may eventually face a more serious shortage of pistachios,” he adds.

Searching for alternative sources

There is another downside to switching sources. According to Dr Lee, pistachios from Iran have a rich, buttery taste, while Sicilian varieties are sharper in flavour and those from the United States milder and sweeter.

Chocoelf’s Dubai-style pistachio kunafa chocolate bars are now made with a blend of US and Sicilian pistachios. Others like Woo, however, have yet to find a straightforward fix.

“Using a premium Sicilian variety means we can’t easily substitute without compromising on the taste or quality,” she says, adding that Italian pistachios taste more refined and complex than other varietals.

Neither has cheesecake brand Queic by Olivia, which sells Dubai chocolate cheesecake and cheesecake bar, made with pistachios which come primarily from Iran.

Is Dubai Chocolate still popular?

In this precarious economic climate, can diners still stomach a S$60 bar of chocolate and its equally luxe variants? The answer, it seems, is yes.

“Demand for our Dubai-style chocolate has been fairly stable in the past three months,” says Dr Lee.

Initially, demand for Queic’s Dubai chocolate products was “exceptionally strong”, driven by the virality of the dessert, as well as the opening of the brand’s Jewel Changi Airport outlet.

In recent weeks, sales have plateaued somewhat, as trends evolve and more players enter the space.

Over at Bomul Gelato Bar at Chijmes, demand for its Dubai Double Black Chocolate flavour has stabilised.

Though initial hype for the chocolate bar – launched in 2022 by Dubai-based engineer Sarah Hamouda, and which went viral in 2024 – may have cooled, it has found fresh purchase in 2026 by spawning the now-ubiquitous Dubai chewy cookie.

Typically shaped like a round ball, the South Korean-originated confection combines two things Singaporeans cannot seem to get enough of: mochi and pistachio. A kataifi-pistachio paste mixture is wrapped in marshmallow dough and dusted with cocoa powder for a slightly bitter kick.

Even The SGFR Store, the candy retailer that first brought the Can’t Get Knafeh Of It bars to Singapore, can no longer rely on its star product alone. Though the original remains its most popular item, it is no longer selling at the rate it was in July 2024.

“The trend today is less about a single chocolate bar, and more about the pistachio paste and kunafa flavour combination, which makes the concept unique and memorable,” says founder Mohamed Haikkel.

Annabella Patisserie, which retails at various stores across the island, has also expanded its range of Dubai Kunafa products to brownies, cakes, macarons and, of course, chewy cookies.

“The Dubai Chocolate trend has shown stronger staying power than most viral dessert trends,” says founder Annabella Soen. “Typically, trends like dalgona coffee or burnt cheesecake peak quickly and fade within three to six months. In contrast, the Dubai Chocolate concept has sustained interest for over a year across multiple markets.”

Erik van Keulen, owner of dessert manufacturer Oishi, makes a similar observation: It has outlasted its initial lifespan as a social media fad.

“The Dubai Chocolate trend combines several already established consumer preferences, including pistachio, premium chocolate, indulgent textures and Middle Eastern flavour influences.

“This has allowed the trend to expand across multiple categories such as ice cream, bakery, beverages, confectionery and cafe desserts, which is generally a sign of stronger long-term potential,” he says.

He adds that a flavour is generally considered to have meaningful staying power once demand continues to perform consistently across different channels and customer segments, even during periods of pricing pressure or softer consumer spending.

A rising tide lifts all boats, and businesses that sell non-Dubai chocolate pistachio creations are also enjoying a boost from the nut’s unceasing popularity.

Dubai Chocolate’s longevity may be uncommon, but its hit status is not unexpected. To Soen, it has all the winning components: enough textural contrast to create a highly satisfying bite, and familiar yet novel tastes.

In chef Kumar’s view, it arrived at just the right moment.

Pistachio flavours were gaining traction and, coupled with the appetite for cultural novelty and luxury aesthetics, these factors fired the trend into the stratosphere.

“It represents a new kind of global food culture,” he says.

— The Straits Times/ANN