KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia is entering the current oil crisis from a position of strength, with its economic growth forecast maintained at 4.5% for 2026, says Standard Chartered Bank (StanChart).
It noted that the nation recorded a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26).
“While sequential growth was flat, we highlight that GDP had risen consecutively for the previous 12 quarters. Services exports and private investment were strong in 1Q26,” it said in a research note yesterday.
In the note, the bank said it expects consumer spending to stay resilient going forward, supported by sustained wage growth, income-related policy measures and cash transfers.
Additionally, the Budi95 fuel subsidy should help cushion households from higher oil prices and limit the drag on consumption, it said.
Household consumption remained stable in 1Q26, adding 2.9 percentage points to y-o-y GDP growth, albeit down from 3.2 percentage points in 4Q25.
Consumer spending stayed slightly lacklustre versus the 2017-2019 average 4.2 percentage point contribution to y-o-y GDP growth.
Meanwhile, StanChart said risks of a rate hike in Malaysia have increased as Bank Negara Malaysia’s focus appears to be shifting towards inflation amid broadening price pressures.
The bank noted the subtle changes in the central bank’s policy statement, including the change in the characterisation of the monetary policy stance to “appropriate and consistent” from “appropriate and supportive”, suggesting a move away from “neutral”. It remains positive on the ringgit. — Bernama
