Petrobras misses profit estimates despite war-driven oil rally


The company posted net income of 32.7 billion reais, above expectations. — Bloomberg

RIO DE JANEIRO: Brazil’s state-controlled oil company, Petrobras, falls short of earnings estimates as it holds domestic petrol prices stable during the war-driven price surge.

Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation came in at 59.64 billion reais (US$12.2bil) for the first quarter, Petrobras reported in a filing.

That fell short of the 64.5 billion reais consensus of analysts tracked by Bloomberg, and was down 2.4% from the same quarter of 2025.

The company posted net income of 32.7 billion reais, above expectations.

Higher oil prices are a double-edged sword for Petroleo Brasileiro SA, as the company is formally known.

The Rio de Janeiro-based producer faces pressure to help contain fuel inflation and increase investment to support economic growth during an election year, eroding some of the gains from the oil rally.

Petrobras generally avoids passing short-term price spikes on to consumers.

Petrobras has held petrol prices stable and only adjusted diesel once since the start of the war in late February, amid a coordinated effort with the government to shield consumers in Latin America’s largest economy.

Brazil has introduced a combination of fuel tax cuts and diesel subsidies to contain fuel inflation, and imposed a temporary oil export tax to help compensate for the measures. 

The increase in Petrobras’s production and refining helped mitigate the impact of holding fuel prices.

Its refineries ran at 95% of capacity, limiting need for imports during the conflict in the Middle East. Petrobras is also ramping up production at Buzios, Brazil’s biggest deep-water oil field.

Oil and gas production rose 16% to 3.23 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the quarter from the year-earlier period. 

Petrobras has rewarded investors with rapid production growth and robust dividends.

The company announced nine billion reais in shareholder payouts, below the average US$2.3bil estimate of four analysts reviewed by Bloomberg.

Petrobras is the last of the oil majors to report earnings during a quarter where surging prices due to upheavals from the US-Israeli war on Iran benefitted the entire industry.

Exxon Mobil Corp, Chevron Corp and Saudi Aramco posted stronger-than-expected profits as higher oil and natural gas prices outweighed war-related production outages.

Trading profits at Shell Plc, BP Plc and TotalEnergies SE rose during the conflict, helping to overcome disruptions to oil and gas production. — Bloomberg

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