Trade data
MALAYSIA’S March 2026 trade data will take centrestage in an otherwise quiet week for economic releases, alongside the coincident and leading indices.
UOB Global Economics and Markets Research estimates Malaysia’s exports will grow 6% year-on-year (y-o-y), easing from 10.8% in February 2026.
Imports are projected to rise 10%, up from 8.2% previously, with trade surplus widening to RM21.8bil from RM16.7bil.
Meanwhile, Trading Economics global macro models and analysts’ expectations project Malaysia’s trade balance to reach RM8bil by the end of the quarter.
In February 2026, Malaysia recorded a trade surplus of RM16.7bil.
China’s LPR
CHINA’S one-year and five-year loan prime rates (LPRs) are due this week, with economists expecting no change.
ING noted that stronger-than-expected first-quarter (1Q26) gross domestic product (GDP) data, combined with recent reflationary trends, may keep the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) on hold until conditions warrant monetary policy support.
According to a Bloomberg poll, all 12 economists surveyed expect the one-year and five-year LPR fixings to remain unchanged at 3% and 3.5%, respectively.
UOB noted that China’s 1Q26 GDP growth, at the top end of the official 4.5% to 5% target range, has reduced the likelihood of near-term rate cuts.
The bank maintains its baseline forecast of a 10-basis-point cut to policy interest rates but has pushed back the timing to 3Q26 from 2Q26 due to heightened uncertainties stemming from the Middle East.
Policy watch
BANK Indonesia (BI) and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) are among the key monetary policy meetings in Asia Pacific this week.
According to a Bloomberg poll, all nine economists surveyed expect BI’s policy rate to remain unchanged at 4.75%.
UOB expects BI to remain on hold in April, noting that the central bank has dropped its easing guidance amid inflation risks.
As such, the bank has revised its outlook and no longer expects any rate cuts this year, adding that the next move could instead be a rate hike, subject to further developments.
ING said Indonesia’s fuel subsidies are helping to limit the impact of higher oil prices, although inflation is still expected to exceed BI’s 2.5% target.
With growth softening, it expects BI to remain on hold at its policy meeting.
Meanwhile, a separate Bloomberg survey shows that four out of six economists polled expect the BSP to raise its overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%, while the remaining two expect it to stay on hold at 4.25%.
