NEW YORK: The sudden increase in US petrol prices felt by American consumers is set to be on full display in key inflation data due out this week.
Economists are pencilling in a 1% increase in the consumer price index (CPI) for March – the sharpest one-month rise since 2022 – after the Iran war pushed gas prices at the pump up by about US$1 per gallon.
At the same time, the core CPI, excluding energy and food, probably rose 0.3% from a month earlier, according to a Bloomberg survey ahead of the Bureau of Labour Statistics report due Friday.
Oil prices have been roiled by five weeks of conflict, climbing to almost US$120 a barrel last month as key Middle East energy assets came under attack and Iran effectively closed the critical Strait of Hormuz, creating what the International Energy Agency called the biggest supply disruption in the history of the market.
A day ahead of the CPI, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation will offer a snapshot of pre-war price pressures. Economists see the so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rising by 0.4% for a third month in February, suggesting progress toward tamer inflation was stalling even before the conflict.
Combined with signs of stabilisation in the US labour market, stubborn price pressures along with new inflation risks stemming from the war help explain why the Fed may struggle to lower interest rates.
“March’s gangbuster payrolls print and lower unemployment rate certainly don’t boost the case for the Fed to resume cutting rates anytime soon. Data this coming week also won’t likely make the case for rate reductions,” said Bloomberg Economics.
The mid-week release of minutes from the central bank’s March policy meeting may shed light on officials’ concerns about inflation or the potential economic impacts stemming from the Iran conflict and related disruptions to energy and other commodity flows. — Bloomberg
