Geopolitical tensions unsettle the markets


Resilient growth: The Jurong Port Tank Terminals in Singapore. Analysts warn that despite recent gains for several companies, the Iran war, now in its sixth week, is likely to bring renewed volatility to local markets. — Reuters

SINGAPORE: Buoyed by reforms to the local equities market, Singapore stocks performed well in the first quarter of 2026, but markets have since turned more volatile as the Iran war clouds the outlook.

The Straits Times Index (STI) rose 5.1% between January and March to 4,885.45 points, with dividends lifting total returns to 5.6%, data from the Singapore Exchange (SGX) showed.

It noted that the STI’s performance was strong compared with other indexes. The FTSE APAC Index delivered 0.4% total return, and the FTSE World Index declined 3% in Singapore dollar terms.

“The STI’s outperformance against regional peers and sustained fund inflows into Singapore equities in March reinforce its safe-haven status,” DBS Bank analysts wrote in an April 1 report.

“This is also supported by Singapore’s resilient growth momentum heading into this conflict, and by oil prices rising in a way that lifts inflation without materially denting growth.”

The 10 best-performing stocks in the first quarter, among those with market capitalisations over S$10bil, included ST Engineering, Wilmar, SGX, Hongkong Land, Keppel, OCBC Bank and Sembcorp.

Some companies have seen gains as the Iran war entered its sixth week.

OCBC surpassed S$100bil in market capitalisation for the first time, as its shares breached the S$22 mark on March 31.

This was buoyed by potential wealth inflows from the Middle East and another interest rate cut on its flagship savings account.

Analysts said all three local banks are likely to benefit from wealth inflows, but cautioned that a risk-off environment could curb investment activity and limit deployment into higher-yielding assets.

OCBC shares closed on April 2 at S$22.38, up more than 4% last week.

DBS also rose. Its chief executive officer (CEO) Tan Su Shan said during the bank’s annual meeting on April 1 that the first-order impact of the war on the bank is “very little” as it has minimal exposure to the region, with Asia as its core market.

DBS shares closed at S$57.55 on April 2, up by more than 1% across the week.

ST Engineering said on April 1 that its marine unit has secured a six-year sub-contract worth about S$600mil from Abu Dhabi Ship Building to design and supply platform systems for eight missile gunboats being built for the Kuwait Naval Force.

In addition to delivering the full suite of platform design, integration and technical expertise, ST Engineering will build three of the vessels at its Singapore shipyard.

Tan Leong Peng, president of ST Engineering’s marine business, said: “This win strengthens ST Engineering’s growing momentum in international defence markets, underscoring the group’s ability to deliver sophisticated naval platforms and capture rising demand for advanced maritime security solutions in the Middle East.”

ST Engineering, which started the week trading below S$11, rose to a high of S$11.20 on April 2 before paring gains to close the week at S$11.03.

CapitaLand Investment (CLI) also rose, closing on April 2 at S$2.74, up 1.9% through the week.

The company said in its annual report released on April 2 that it will step up capital recycling and review options for its China assets, after softer market conditions slowed divestments to S$3.1bil in 2025 from S$5.5bil a year earlier.

Revaluation losses also widened to S$439mil in 2025, largely due to its China portfolio.

A revaluation loss is an accounting loss that happens when a company marks down the value of its assets to reflect current market conditions.

In their letter to shareholders, CLI’s chairman Miguel Ko and group CEO Lee Chee Koon said the group will accelerate divestments while staying disciplined on new investments moving forward.

Packet drinks brand Yeo Hiap Seng (Yeo’s) closed unchanged at 60 Singapore cents on April 2 despite laying off 25 employees at its Senoko facility on March 31, as it moves its can manufacturing operations to Johor and Selangor in Malaysia.

The affected roles are in can manufacturing, and involve both local and foreign employees.

The company now has about 245 employees in Singapore following the layoffs, and around 1,300 across its overseas operations.

In a bourse filing, Yeo’s said it is restructuring its business model in Singapore due to changing consumer patterns and retail conditions as well as increasing cost pressures.

It will continue to ensure a stable supply of products to meet consumer demand in Singapore following the move, a spokesperson said.

Catalist could soon see its third listing for the year, after sports events management company Kin Global lodged a preliminary prospectus for an initial public offering (IPO) on the Catalist board.

The company behind major sports events in Singapore, including the World Aquatics Championships and World Table Tennis Singapore Smash, is offering both new shares and vendor shares by co-founders Ko Chee Wah and Vincent Chai, who will retain control of the company post-listing.

While the final offer size and pricing have yet to be disclosed, cornerstone investors including Amova Asset Management Asia, Apricot Capital and Qilin Wealth Fund have committed to subscribing for shares, subject to listing conditions.

The company said IPO proceeds will be used for acquisitions, investments in new attractions and working capital to support bids for larger as well as recurring contracts to tap the rise of what it calls “event tourism”.

Since the start of 2026, two companies have listed on the Catalist board, co-living operator The Assembly Place and cloud communications platform Toku.

Markets, including Singapore’s, should continue to be volatile this week, after US President Donald Trump in his address to the nation on April 2 revealed no clear end to the Iran war.

He said in the televised address that the United States would strike Iran hard over the next two to three weeks, but did not set a timeline for ending the conflict.

Before the speech, the price of benchmark Brent crude was trading at about US$100 a barrel. Afterwards, it rose to US$105. — The Straits Times/ANN

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Singapore , STI , Middle East , equity

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