PETALING JAYA: Malaysia’s trade is expected to remain strong, as there are no current signs of revision to any global growth forecasts as yet.
Williams Business Consultancy Sdn Bhd founder and economist Geoffrey Williams told StarBiz that despite the pessimism over tariffs imposed by the United States, trade surplus surged.
“This is because the impact of the tariff disruptions acted as a catalyst for growth and innovation among exporters,” he said.
Williams added that he believes Malaysia is protected by its main markets within the Asean region, and other parts of Asia.
Yesterday, the Statistics Department said Malaysia had continued to enjoy a surplus in trade performance, as exports increased from the electrical and electronics (E&E) sector.
According to data, the trade surplus widened by 32.5%, hitting RM16.7bil last month, marking the 70th consecutive month of surplus since May 2020.
Exports grew 10.8%, valued at RM131bil while imports increased 8.2%, valued at RM114.2bil.
This lifted total trade by 9.5%, recording RM245.2bil from RM223.9bil.
On whether Malaysia might continue enjoying a trade surplus in the future, Williams said it depended very much on how competitive and agile exporters could be.
“The strong ringgit makes exports more expensive and imports cheaper, so this may drag on the trade surplus during this year,” he said.
However, he does not reckon the war in Iran will greatly impact global economies for very much longer.
“The Middle East conflict looks like it will not last much longer and provided the blockage in the Strait of Hormuz can be relieved, trade flows, supply chains and oil supplies should quickly return to normal.”
Head of equity sales at Rakuten Trade Vincent Lau chose to be more cautious, saying should the war in Iran continue, Malaysia being export-oriented, might feel the effects of any type of global slowdown.
According to Lau, the war has hit day 20 and counting, while previously, a strike on Iran back in June 2025 only lasted 12 days.
“It seems like we’re at the peak of the conflict, at this rate, there doesn’t seem to be anything left to strike. Brent oil has surged to US$110 per barrel as fears of oil, gas and liquefied petroleum gas face disruptions as attacks on facilities have happened,” Lau explained.
He remains optimistic, though, stating in the next six months, he expects the situation to be better while the world experiences a normalisation of the effects of this conflict.
“We estimate the E&E sector will remain positive in the next 12 to 24 months. Malaysia holds an integral position as part of the global value chain of both the semiconductor and E&E sector’s growth,” he told StarBiz.
Meanwhile, chief statistician Datuk Seri Mohd Uzir Mahidin said re-exports, which accounted for 20.3%, surged 24.8% year-on-year to RM26.6bil, while domestic exports, accounting for 79.7%, rose 7.7% to RM104.3 bil.
Increased shipments of exports were recorded to the United States (RM7.4bil rise), followed by Taiwan (RM3.3bil), the European Union (RM3.2bil), Hong Kong (RM2.2bil), China (RM1.7bil), Thailand (RM834.2mil) and South Korea (RM621.6mil).
The increase in imports was largely due to higher inflows from China (RM6.1bil rise), followed by South Korea (RM3.6bil), Taiwan (RM3.3bil), Costa Rica (RM1.1bil), Vietnam (RM1.1bil), Switzerland (RM655.1mil) and the European Union (RM650.3mil).
According to Mohd Uzir, export growth was not only driven solely by the E&E sector, but rather, other manufactures, metalliferous ores and metal scrap, optical and scientific equipment, and crude petroleum, among others.
Concurrently, imports were also backed by stronger demand for E&E products, metalliferous ores and metal scrap, machinery, equipment and parts, and optical and scientific equipment.
By end use, the expansion in imports was attributable to increased demand for capital goods, consumption goods and intermediate goods.
“Imports of capital goods rose by 15.4% or RM2.1bil, settling at RM15.9bil. Consumption goods was up by 1.5% or RM136.7mil to reach RM9.2bil,” Mohd Uzir noted.
On a month-on-month basis, exports, imports, total trade and the trade surplus declined by 10.8%, 8.5%, 9.8% and 23.9%, respectively, compared to January 2026.
By commodity groups, 87 out of 258 export categories and 135 out of 258 import categories recorded increases from a year earlier.
Separately, Malaysia External Trade Development Corp’s (Matrade) chief executive officer, Abu Bakar Yusof, said the leap in trade surplus for the first two months of 2026 signified the country’s strength in sustaining momentum from last year.
He noted, however, the immediate priority now was to mitigate the “double-ended” blockade affecting cargo by leveraging the local presence in West Asia to gauge real-time feedback on the logistical hurdles that are possibly affecting Malaysia’s exports.
Furthermore, insights from a recent survey had indicated 63.9% of local exporters were expecting to be impacted mainly from shipment delays and significant increases in ocean freight.
“We are mobilising our Middle Eastern offices in Dubai, Jeddah, Cairo and Doha to provide ground-level intelligence and assist exporters in navigating the total Mid-East maritime lockdown.
“While we anticipate operational strain, we are positioning Malaysia as a reliable alternative supplier for trade partners seeking to diversify away from regional risks,” he said.
Abu Bakar urged exporters to explore diversification, such as rerouting shipments to lower-risk ports like Fujairah or Salalah, and to accelerate diversification into less-impacted regions such as South Asia, Latin America and Africa.
“We are sharing critical ground intelligence with our business communities, advising on alternative logistics routes and supply chain adjustments to bypass disruptions in the Red Sea.”
