OPR seen steady
BANK Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) Monetary Policy Committee is set to meet for its second meeting of the year this week, with most economists expecting the overnight policy rate (OPR) to remain unchanged at 2.75%.
According to a Bloomberg survey, all six economists polled anticipate that BNM will keep the benchmark rate steady at 2.75%.
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research economists Julia Goh and Jasrine Loke also expect the central bank to maintain the OPR at 2.75%, saying the current stance remains appropriate to support growth amid modest inflation and lingering external uncertainties.
MBSB Research also expects BNM to maintain the OPR at 2.75% this year, with monetary policy remaining accommodative amid robust domestic demand and a manageable inflation outlook.
Meanwhile, Apex Securities said the steady January inflation print, coupled with improving growth momentum, reinforces its expectation that BNM will keep the OPR at 2.75% throughout 2026.
It added that barring a materially stronger growth outlook or a significant easing in external risks, there is little urgency for the central bank to normalise the OPR towards 3% in the near term.
Kenanga Research expects BNM to keep the OPR at 2.75%, as easing growth and contained price pressures support policy stability while preserving exchange-rate credibility and flexibility against external risks.
Separately, BNM will release its international reserves data as at Feb 27, while the S&P Global Manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) is also due this week.
Beijing’s Two Sessions kicks off
CHINA’S Two Sessions will kick off this week in Beijing, where key economic targets for 2026, most notably the gross domestic product (GDP) growth goal, are expected to be unveiled.
ING believes there is a chance the growth target will be lowered to “above 4.5%” from the “around 5.0%” level set in recent years.
China is also expected to unveil fiscal targets, including for the deficit-to-GDP ratio and bond issuance.
According to Bloomberg estimates, China’s official February manufacturing PMI is seen at 49, down from 49.3 in January, while the non-manufacturing PMI is expected to edge up to 49.6 from 49.4.
Inflation numbers
SEVERAL Asian economies are scheduled to release inflation data this week.
Indonesia is expected to see headline inflation rise to 4.35% year-on-year (y-o-y) from 3.55% in January, according to Bloomberg estimates, while core inflation is projected to edge up to 2.48% from 2.45%.
In the Philippines, Bloomberg forecasts inflation at 2.6% y-o-y, while UOB estimates a slightly lower 2.4%, compared with 2% previously.
Thailand’s inflation is projected to come in at minus 0.49% y-o-y, narrowing from minus 0.66% in the prior month.
