PETALING JAYA: Malaysia’s external trade is set to remain resilient through 2026, with goods exports projected to grow at a steady pace amid a softer global backdrop.
Analysts expect the early-year momentum to give way to moderation as front-loading effects fade and geopolitical risks linger.
Brokerages including BIMB Research, Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research, TA Research and MBSB Research broadly foresee robust but uneven conditions ahead.
Commenting on January’s data, BIMB Research said Malaysia’s external trade began the year on a solid note.
“The breadth and strength of the expansion point to resilient external demand and improving trade intermediation flows, reinforcing a constructive start to the first quarter of financial year 2026 (1Q26),” it noted.
Official data showed export growth accelerating to 19.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in January from 10.2% y-o-y in the preceding month, surpassing consensus expectations, driven by stronger electrical and electronics products, machinery and metal manufactures.
Import growth eased to 5.3% y-o-y in January from 9.5% y-o-y in December 2025, while the trade surplus narrowed to RM21.4bil from RM22.1bil.
For the full year, BIMB Research forecast goods exports growth of 3.5% in 2026, down from 6.4% in 2025, as earlier front-loading dissipates and tariff measures are absorbed.
It said domestic exports are expected to rise 1.6%, while re-exports, though comparatively resilient at 9.7%, are set to slow markedly from last year’s surge.
Import growth is seen easing to 5% from 6%, bringing total trade growth to 4.2% in 2026 (2025: 6.2%).
BIMB Research cautioned that heightened geopolitical and trade policy uncertainty remains a key downside risk heading into 2026, pointing to tensions in parts of Latin America and the Middle East, renewed US–European Union frictions and evolving tariff measures.
Although the International Monetary Fund projects global gross domestic product (GDP) growth of around 3.3% in 2026, global trade expansion is expected to stay modest and uneven, it added.
HLIB Research said it continued to anticipate a sustained expansion in global semiconductor sales, positioning Malaysia as a key beneficiary.
“Nevertheless, we remain cautiously optimistic on the trade outlook, reflecting the downside risks stemming from the ongoing weakness in commodity-related exports, elevated global policy uncertainty, as well as lingering geopolitical tensions,” it said.
One analyst noted that while the January figures show trade is off to a good start, one shouldn’t assume this pace will continue all year, as some of the strength could ease as global demand becomes more uncertain.
“That said, the overall picture is still encouraging,” the analyst added.
“Malaysian exporters are holding up well, though businesses will need to stay nimble given the shifting global environment.”
TA Research described the January figures as “an encouraging start to 1Q26, reinforcing the strong momentum seen at the end of 4Q25.”
It maintained its 2026 export growth forecast at 4.6% y-o-y, with imports projected to rise 6.2% and the trade surplus at around RM135bil, though it warned that currency strength and softer intermediate goods exports could temper momentum.
“From a manufacturing perspective, the current trade trends point to a cautiously improving outlook.
“Stronger export orders, especially in electrical and electronics, chemicals, and processed food, should continue to support production activities in early 2026,” TA Research said.
“However, the contraction in capital and intermediate goods imports suggests that investment expansion remains measured, implying that manufacturing growth may stay moderate rather than broad-based,” it added.
Meanwhile, MBSB Research expected exports to expand 4.5% and imports 5% in 2026, with potential upside from front-loading of electrical and electronics shipments ahead of phased US tariffs on selected advanced chips.
RHB Research, which had projected exports to grow 9.3% this year, said such performance would be driven by three key trends: robust global and regional growth, developments in US tariff policies, and the continued strength of the electrical and electronics shipments.
