JAKARTA: The Indonesian Nickel Smelter Association (Fini) is forecasting nickel ore demand from domestic smelters in 2026 to reach around 340 million to 350 million tonnes, its chairman Arif Perdana Kusuma says.
He said the demand outlook represents an annual increase of around 40 million to 50 million tonnes, with new production capacity expected to come online in 2026.
Indonesia, which has the world’s largest nickel ore reserves, has announced plans to slash mineral production quotas to prop up prices and increase government revenue. Details have not yet been disclosed.
The policy may cause ore shortages for smelting companies and forced them to import from elsewhere, Arif said.
Fini estimated that around 15 million tonnes of nickel ore were imported from the Philippines in 2025, with domestic ore production reaching only around 85% of the approved quota for the year.
“Nickel ore imports will be the main balancing mechanism. Imports have the potential to increase to around 50 million tonnes in 2026,” he said in a text message.
Ore will likely come from places such as the Philippines, New Caledonia or the Solomon Islands, although not all of the demand will be met by imports, due to higher costs and logistical challenges.
Some smelters may be forced to reduce their refining capacity by around 15% to 18%.
Global nickel prices have strengthened on expectations that ore output in Indonesia could be slashed.
According to Statista, Russia, Canada and New Caledonia are also among the top exporters because of high‑grade nickel and established refining industries. — Reuters
