KUALA LUMPUR: Growth in the ASEAN+3 region is projected at 4.1 per cent in 2025 and 3.8 per cent in 2026, an upward revision from July’s forecast, supported by robust first-half performance and stronger-than-expected export momentum.
According to the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office’s (AMRO) ASEAN+3 Financial Stability Report 2025 and the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook - October Update, market pressures have gradually eased since peaking in April following the announcement of the "Liberation Day” tariffs.
"Export-oriented corporate sectors, particularly smaller firms with high exposure to the United States (US) demand, may face pressures on profit margins amid shifting trade dynamics.
"Inflation pressures in the US could persist amid higher import tariffs, complicating the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy stance and potentially triggering spillovers to other parts of the world,” it said in a statement today.
Additionally, AMRO said that growing uncertainty around the US dollar’s safe-haven status could further fragment the global financial landscape.
Despite these challenges, ASEAN+3 economies remain well-positioned to navigate global headwinds, it said.
"Well-calibrated policy mixes and strong fundamentals -- including robust banking systems, deepening financial markets, ample foreign reserves and available policy space -- have provided critical buffers.
"With inflation largely subdued and expectations well-anchored in most economies, central banks can maintain accommodative monetary policy to support growth,” it said.
AMRO chief economist Dong He said that while intra-regional trade and domestic demand have become increasingly important growth drivers across ASEAN+3, the region remains deeply connected to the global financial system and is therefore not insulated from global shocks.
"Overall, the region’s financial system remains resilient, although pockets of vulnerabilities persist,” he added.
ASEAN+3 comprises 10 ASEAN member states: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, as well as three dialogue partners, namely China, Japan, and South Korea.
AMRO is a regional macroeconomic surveillance organisation that aims to contribute to securing the macroeconomic and financial stability in the ASEAN+3 region. - Bernama
