TOKYO: Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Minneapolis president Neel Kashkari says major shifts in US trade and immigration policy are creating uncertainty for Fed officials to move on interest rates before September, as the Trump administration continues tariff talks with numerous governments.
“Anything is possible,” Kashkari said yesterday in an interview on Bloomberg Television in Tokyo.
But will the picture “be clear enough by September? I am not sure right now. We will have to see what the data says, but also how the negotiations are going”, he said.
If trade deals are struck between the United States and other nations over the next few months, “that should provide a lot of the clarity we are looking for”.
While the US economy entered 2025 on solid footing, President Donald Trump’s tariffs and substantial changes to the country’s immigration policy have prompted businesses to rethink investment plans.
Widespread levies are seen pushing up US inflation while denting growth as firms pull back investment and households rein in spending.
Kashkari and other central bank officials, including Chicago Fed chief Austan Goolsbee, have said the bar remains high for cutting interest rates in the near term.
“This uncertainty is potentially weighing on economic activity and creating challenges for us because we are not sure where things are going to settle and, therefore, where we should go with monetary policy,” Kashkari said.
Several Fed policymakers in the past week have signalled that their wait-and-see approach to potential interest rate adjustments could extend for months as they look for clarity on the tariffs and their impact on the US economy.
Trump added to the uncertainty late last week when he threatened to impose a new 50% tariff on imported goods from the European Union, before delaying them until July 9.
Trump also warned of a potential 25% levy on devices made by Apple Inc and Samsung Electronics Co that are not manufactured in the United States.
The Supreme Court last week shielded the Fed from Trump’s push to fire top officials at independent federal agencies.
In a ruling that let Trump oust officials at two other agencies, the court said its decision wouldn’t apply to the central bank, calling it a “uniquely structured, quasi-private entity”. — Bloomberg
