GDP data in focus
THIS holiday-shortened week will see the release of Malaysia’s first-quarter (1Q25) gross domestic product (GDP) data, along with wholesale and retail trade performance.
According to the Statistics Department’s advance estimate, GDP is projected to have grown 4.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 1Q25.
Bloomberg estimates a y-o-y GDP growth of 4.6%, while UOB Global Economics & Markets Research expects it to come in at 4.5%.
OCBC expects 1Q25 GDP growth to likely remain in line with the advance estimate of 4.4% y-o-y, down from 5% in 4Q24.
Bank Negara is scheduled to release the GDP performance on Friday.
Chinese numbers
CHINA is expected to release data on new yuan loans, M2 money supply and outstanding loan growth this week.
ING expects the recovery in credit growth to continue this year, though the April data will not yet reflect the People’s Bank of China’s latest easing measures.
China’s April M2 money supply is expected to rise 7.2% y-o-y, up from 7% in March, according to Bloomberg estimates.
Bloomberg also projects aggregate financing to reach 16.55 trillion yuan, up from 15.18 trillion yuan, while new yuan loans are expected to increase to 10.47 trillion yuan from 9.77 trillion yuan in March.
Japan’s growth story
JAPAN’s economy is expected to contract in the first quarter by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted, following a 0.6% gain in the last three months of 2024, according to ING.
ING expects private consumption to grow on the back of strong household spending and rising foreign tourist arrivals, though weak external demand may remain a key drag.
It noted that front-loading to beat tariffs was limited compared to other exporters, while imports rebounded. Weak growth is likely to keep the Bank of Japan’s rate-hike cycle on hold.
