HLIB Research is projecting 4Q24 GDP to expand at 5%.
PETALING JAYA: A host of research houses are forecasting the gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the last quarter of 2024 (4Q24) to beat the Statistics Department’s advanced estimate of 4.8% year-on-year (y-o-y), while unanimously tipping the country’s overall growth for the year to level at 5.1%.
If the estimates are accurate, the 2024 result would be significantly better than the 3.6% GDP growth seen for the whole of 2023.
Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research is projecting 4Q24 GDP to expand at 5%, supported by continued expansion in the services, manufacturing and construction sectors, although it is a slight easing from a quarterly perspective as 3Q24 had posted a growth of 5.3%.
Despite an acceleration in the services sector, it said overall quarterly growth is expected to ease following a contraction in the mining and agriculture sectors, along with a slowdown in the manufacturing and construction sectors.
“On the expenditure front, private consumption is expected to remain supportive of overall growth, lifted by a strong labour market and sustained wage growth in both the services and manufacturing sectors.
“This is also consistent with the slight pickup in retail sales during the quarter.”
The research house added that overall growth is expected to also be weighed down by slower export activity due to rising concerns over global trade policies.
Meanwhile, Maybank Investment Bank Research said based on the latest 4Q24 indicators, it is estimating last quarter’s GDP growth to be at 4.9% y-o-y, marginally lower than the forecast given by HLIB Research.
“Our real GDP growth estimate for 4Q24 is based on projections of faster growth, compared to the Statistics Department’s advanced estimates for services, manufacturing and construction, as well as a smaller contraction compared to its estimate for mining amid a larger decline in the case of agriculture,” said the research house in a note to clients yesterday.
Similarly, TA Research commented that the 4Q24 GDP growth could potentially reach 5% y-o-y, representing a 0.2 percentage point (ppt) and 0.3 ppt difference from the Statistics Department’s estimate and its own forecast, respectively.
For 2024, its calculations indicated that GDP growth will likely align with the department’s advanced estimate of 5.1%.
“Regardless of the outcome, growth remains within the government’s target range of 4.5% to 5.3%, reinforcing Malaysia’s economic resilience amid external uncertainties,” it said.
Looking ahead into 2025, HLIB Research is expecting Malaysia’s economic growth to ease slightly to 4.9% y-o-y, supported primarily by sustained household spending on the back of a stable labour market.
“Malaysia’s GDP growth will be boosted further by supportive income measures such as the national wage hikes and Employees’ Provident Fund Account 3 withdrawals.
“Nevertheless, downside risks to growth remain, in light of the uncertain global policy environment,” it said.
