GDP in focus
MALAYSIA’s economy is projected to have expanded by 5.3% in the third quarter of 2024 (3Q24) compared with the same period last year.
Bank Negara is scheduled to release 3Q24 gross domestic product (GDP) on Nov 15.
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research forecasts a strong 5.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in real GDP for 3Q24, driven mainly by higher manufacturing output, strong construction activity, and resilient services, helping to offset weaknesses in agriculture and mining.
It noted that year-ago low base effects, ongoing implementation of initiatives outlined in national master plans and government fiscal policy support are also impetus to sustaining the growth momentum.
According to Trading Economics, Malaysia’s GDP annual growth rate is expected to reach 4.3% by the end of this quarter, based on global macro models and analysts’ expectations.
China data dumpCHINA is expected to release a deluge of data this week including consumer price index (CPI), production price index (PPI), industrial production (IP), jobless rate and retail sales.
ING anticipates China’s CPI data to show little change in year-on-year figures, with CPI inflation expected at 0.4% y-o-y.
It also expects strong PMI data to support an uptick in industrial production, forecasting a rise to 5.6% y-o-y.
Retail sales, while likely to remain under pressure, should edge up to 3.5% y-o-y.
Bloomberg estimates China’s inflation in October to rise by 0.4% y-o-y, the same as the preceding month, while retail sales are expected to grow by 3.8% y-o-y, up from 3.2% in September.
Third-quarter figuresJapan will release its third-quarter GDP data, while Hong Kong will publish its final 3Q GDP figures.
ING expects Japan’s growth to slow to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted, down from 0.8% in the second quarter, as typhoon and mega-earthquake warnings partially hinder economic activity.
Private consumption is expected to rise modestly while construction and facility investment are expected to contract. ING expects growth to reaccelerate in the fourth quarter, driven by a technical rebound.
