KUALA LUMPUR: AmBank Group foresees a slightly slower year-on-year (y-o-y) gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5.1 per cent for Malaysia in the third quarter of 2024 (3Q2024), down from the official advance estimate of 5.3 per cent.
In a note today, the bank said that after considering the latest statistical data, this forecast reflects a slight variance from its initial estimate of five per cent.
"This aligns with our earlier view that the 3Q growth will remain around five per cent-level, after reaching its peak growth in the previous quarter as the low base effect dissipates,” the bank said.
If realised, Ambank said this would bring Malaysia’s growth for the first nine months of the year to 5.1 per cent, keeping it on track to achieve the official full-year projection of 4.8 per cent to 5.3 per cent as recently updated in the Budget 2025 announcement.
AmBank attributes this growth to strong household consumption and a robust labour market, with the unemployment rate easing to the pre-pandemic level of 3.2 per cent, consistent with its year-end forecast.
It also noted that the services and manufacturing sectors continue to drive Malaysia’s economy, together accounting for over 80 per cent of the GDP.
"We posit that 4Q2024 growth will moderate further due to headwinds from global uncertainties, which could impact consumer and business sentiment.
"Our 2024 GDP projection remains at 4.9 per cent, which seems feasible as it aligns with the official estimates,” it added.
Malaysia’s GDP announcement is scheduled for release this Thursday. - Bernama
