BEIJING: China’s outbound shipments grew at the fastest pace in over two years in October as manufacturers rushed inventory to major export markets in anticipation of further tariffs from the United States and the European Union, with the threat of a broader trade war looming.
With Donald Trump being elected as the next US president, his pre-election pledge to impose tariffs on Chinese imports in excess of 60% is likely to spur a shift in stocks to warehouses in China’s biggest export market.
Outbound shipments from the world’s second-largest economy grew 12.7% year-on-year last month, customs data showed yesterday, blowing past a forecast 5.2% increase in a Reuters poll of economists and a 2.4% rise in September.
Imports fell 2.3%, compared with expectations for a drop of 1.5%.
“We can anticipate a lot of front-loading going into the fourth quarter, before the pressure kicks in come 2025,” said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. “I think it is mainly down to Trump. The threat is becoming more real.”
Trade data from South Korea and Taiwan pointed to cooling global demand, while German manufacturers have also reported they are struggling to find buyers overseas, leading analysts to conclude producers are slashing prices to find buyers or simply moving stocks out of China.
But exporters also had help from a positive turn in the weather, enabling them to send out delayed orders.
Typhoon Bebinca brought Shanghai to a standstill for one day in September, causing severe disruption to one of China’s busiest ports.
In the eastern province of Jiangsu a violent tornado killed at least 10 people and several other regions suffered heavy rain and strong winds, disrupting production. — Reuters
