SYDNEY: Australia’s central bank is poised to keep interest rates at a 13-year high, marking a year of unchanged policy as it grapples with a slow pace of disinflation and mounting global risks capped by a tight US election.
Economists see the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) holding the cash rate at 4.35% today and leaving it there until at least February, with the board’s statement expected to remain cautiously hawkish.
It’s likely to highlight the need for restrictive policy given an update of economic forecasts is set to show core consumer prices staying stubbornly elevated.
The inter-meeting period has seen a consolidation of trends: a strong labour market, still-elevated inflation and a deteriorating global backdrop.
Geopolitical strains have been at the forefront with North Korean troops joining Russia’s war on Ukraine and Israel and Iran conducting missile strikes on each other.
Markets are already pricing a return of Donald Trump as president – an outcome that will likely lead to an intensification of trade turmoil.
“Globally, there’s more uncertainty than usual and coupled with the domestic data, argues for caution and patience from the RBA,” said Su-Lin Ong, chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada.
“Top of the list of uncertainties will be the US election, both the presidency and composition of Congress.”
Financial markets are bracing for volatility from the US presidential election.
Traders are weighing the impact of a disputed result or a renewed trade war with China. Beijing last month unveiled aggressive measures to underwrite growth that has been lacklustre in recent times.
Economists said they will be interested in any discussions around the Chinese economy in the RBA’s commentary.
China buys almost a third of Australian exports and has an outsized influence on the nation’s economic performance.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers last month hailed China’s new stimulus effort as a “really welcome development” for both his nation and the world at large.
Chalmers pointed to weak demand in China as among factors that have been weighing on his nation’s economy. — Bloomberg
