SYDNEY: Australian business conditions rose in September helped by a rebound in employment, a survey shows, suggesting levels of activity had remained resilient despite the economy tracking through a period of slow growth.
The survey from National Australia Bank (NAB) showed its index of business conditions rose three points to plus-seven, while the more volatile business confidence index rose three points to minus-two, with improvements in retail, and recreation and personal services.
“Some of the previous month’s fall in confidence was reversed in September but confidence remains well below average,” said NAB head of Australian Economics Gareth Spence.
“Interestingly, as we think we are passing through the weakest point in economic growth for this cycle, business conditions have broadly tracked around average through mid-2024.”
Within the conditions measure, the index of employment jumped to plus-five after it plunged to plus-one in August.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has held interest rates steady at 4.35% since November, judging the current rate restrictive enough to bring inflation back to its target band of 2% to 3% while preserving the employment gains.
Headline inflation slowed to 2.7% in August, back in the target band, due to the government’s electricity rebates, but the RBA has warned the monthly measure is volatile and it would look through the temporary impact.
Swaps imply less than a 50% probability there will be a cut in December. — Reuters
