Productive farmland: A harvester works on a farm near Allerton, Illinois. — AP
SPECULATORS covered short positions in Chicago corn and soybeans last week, chipping away at their still-massive bearish bets as futures continued climbing off multi-year lows.
In the week ended on March 12, money managers cut their net short position in CBOT soybean futures and options to 155,137 contracts from a record 171,999 in the prior week, predominantly on short covering.
This was the first week with funds as net bean buyers in 17 weeks, ending a record-long selling stretch.
Most-active CBOT soybean futures during the week jumped 4% and were up 6% from a Feb 29 low, which was the lowest price since November 2020.
Most-active corn futures, as of March 12, also rose 9% from touching their lowest since November 2020 late last month.
Corn was up 3.6% in the week ended on March 12, and money managers were heavily axing gross short positions for the second time in three weeks. Their net short fell to 255,928 futures and options contracts from 296,795 a week earlier.
The managed money corn net short hit a record 340,732 futures and options contracts on Feb 20, though recent short covering put funds’ March 12 position even with the same date in 2019, which featured a record net short at the time. Six weeks later, the pre-2024 record short was reached.A big year-on-year jump in global corn and soybean supplies slashed prices in recent months and pushed speculators into record short bets, but some of that selling may have been overdone, especially with questionable weather in Brazil and the US planting season still to come.
CBOT wheat futures made contract lows last Monday, though they were down just fractionally during the week ended on March 12. But money managers sold more than 13,000 futures and options contracts that week, raising their net short to 78,870 contracts, their most bearish view since December.
China’s recent cancellations and postponements of US and Australian wheat cargoes have been a weight on the wheat market, as have heavy supplies of Russian wheat.
Futures fell 3.5% between Wednesday and Friday but remained above the March 11 low.CBOT soybeans made six-week highs last Thursday but rose minimally between last Wednesday and last Friday, and corn fell 1.1% over that same period after notching five-week highs last Tuesday.
Soy products
CBOT soybean products were on the move in the week ended on March 12 as soybean oil surged more than 6%. Money managers slashed their net short in soyoil to 33,410 futures and options contracts from 62,473 a week earlier, their biggest round of net buying since September 2019.
Soymeal futures added nearly 3% through March 12, but money managers extended their net short to 50,935 futures and options contracts from 49,526 in the prior week. That established funds’ most bearish meal view since June 2020 and was their 15th week of the last 16 as net meal sellers.
For the first time since November 2022, money managers’ soyoil views are comparably more optimistic than their soymeal ones, implying potentially bullish positioning in the CBOT oilshare.
Oilshare measures soyoil’s share of value in the soy products. Soybean oil last Friday reached two-month highs, up 9% in March so far and tracking strength in rival global vegoil prices.
Benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures earlier this month hit more than seven-month highs on a combination of tight supply and strong demand.
Soyoil in the last three sessions added more than 3% but soymeal slid 1%. — Reuters
Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.
