3Ts to drive South-East Asia’s economic growth

Customers outside a shopping mall in District 1 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, on Saturday, Oct. 22, 2022. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh is confident Vietnam’s growth will exceed expectations this year, and retain the title of Southeast Asia’s fastest-growing economy through next year, as it emerges from the pandemic. Photographer: Maika Elan/Bloomberg

EIGHTEEN months into a historic interest-rate upcycle, South-East Asia’s economic prospects continue to stand out in a world faced with high inflation and soft demand.

Three long-term trends will ensure that this dynamic region remains the growth engine of the world. Our latest forecast is for the six largest economies in South-East Asia to grow by 4.2% this year and 4.8% next year, far outstripping the expansion expected in the developed world (1.1% in 2023 and 0.7% in 2024).