PETALING JAYA: The price of crude palm oil (CPO) is likely to remain firm as the local estates enter into the low-production season amid strong demand due to the upcoming Christmas and Chinese New Year festivities, says CGS-CIMB Research.
In November, local CPO prices gained 11% month-on-month (m-o-m) to RM4,087 per tonne due to recovering demand and concerns over a supply shortfall due to weather issues.
The research house noted, “Expectations of lower palm oil supplies in December, January and February, which are traditionally the lowest palm oil production months, could likely support CPO prices.”
It has pegged CPO to trade in the range of RM3,800 to RM4,200 per tonne this month. This will see the CPO price averaging at around RM5,122 per tonne for 2022 and RM3,800 per tonne for 2023, according to CGS-CIMB Research.
However, the research house has reiterated a “neutral” call on planters, as “the sector still lacks catalysts”.
Its preferred stock picks in Malaysia include Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd
, Hap Seng Plantations Holdings Bhd and Ta Ann Holdings Bhd.
Meanwhile, findings from a survey of planters by the CGS-CIMB Futures team revealed that the local CPO output is expected to drop 2% m-o-m, but grew 8.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 1.78 million tonnes in November due to seasonality.
For the month under review, local palm oil exports likely grew 3.4% m-o-m and 6% y-o-y to 1.56 million tonnes based on export statistics by cargo surveyors Intertek (5.6% m-o-m), SGS (2.8%) and Amspec Malaysia (1.6% m-o-m).
The strong palm oil exports were due to CPO’s attractive pricing discount against soybean oil, CGS-CIMB Research said in its latest preview of palm oil stocks for November.
It noted Indonesia’s higher palm oil taxes and levy of US$118 (RM518.73) per tonne since mid-November led to a widening of the CPO price discount between Indonesia and Malaysia to RM587 per tonne currently, and improved the competitiveness of local palm oil exports.
“We believe this may have contributed to the growth in Malaysia’s palm oil exports last month,” it said.
Another factor driving palm oil demand is CPO’s attractive discount of US$276 (RM1,213) per tonne against soybean oil from Brazil in November versus US$246 (RM1,082) per tonne in October.
As for inventory, CGS-CIMB Research estimated that the local palm oil stock probably grew 0.5% m-o-m and 33% y-o-y to 2.42 million tonnes at end-November 2022, which is its highest level since April 2019 due to recovering output.
Its projection for November’s palm oil stock level in Malaysia is also 7% above the 10-year historical November average of 2.26 millon tonnes.
The national palm oil regulatory body, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, is expected to release the official palm oil statistics for November by early next week.
In another development, CGS-CIMB Research gathered that plantation companies were hiring more foreign workers to counter the sector’s worker shortage issue.
“However, this has only partially alleviated the worker shortage as it takes time to identify, recruit and train the workers, given the more stringent recruitment processes in efforts to raise productivity at the estates,” said the research house.
