Crude palm oil price likely to remain elevated


From a technical point of view, MIDF Research said the CPO price rally seems to be waning in a correction mode, reflecting the weak price to date of RM4,766 per tonne.“However, we believe there are signs that this soft pace is short-lived, and the price will stay elevated in the second-half of 2022.Crude palm oil price likely to remain elevated."

PETALING JAYA: The current contraction in the price of crude palm oil (CPO) is justifiable, given that it grew too fast compared with the previous year and seemingly has peaked as the market assesses the impact of the Russian-Ukraine war and inflation.

From a technical point of view, MIDF Research said the CPO price rally seems to be waning in a correction mode, reflecting the weak price to date of RM4,766 per tonne.

“However, we believe there are signs that this soft pace is short-lived, and the price will stay elevated in the second-half of 2022.

“(CPO) prices will be supported by higher price of edibles oil on the back of supply concerns.

“This comes amid the Russia–Ukraine war, a subdued production outlook for soybean in 2022-2023 due to the return of La-Nina for the third-year in a row in South America and compounded by a lower planted area in the United States and improved demand outlook in line with the recovery in economic activities,” MIDF Research said in its report.

MIDF Research also maintained a positive stance on the plantation sector, with an unchanged CPO price forecast at RM5,500 per tonne for 2022.

However, the key risks to CPO prices include new variants resulting in another lockdown worldwide, higher-than-expected soybean and soybean oil stockpiles and supply as well as policy changes in importing countries.

The research house’s top picks for the sector are Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd with a target price (TP) of RM31.50 and TSH Resources Bhd (TP RM1.90).

Valuation wise, MIDF Research pointed out that Bursa’s KL Plantation Index is currently trading at price-to-earnings ratio of 25.4 times, which nearly four years average an historical mean of 25.8 times.

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