KUALA LUMPUR: Supermax Corp Bhd
is on an uphill battle to maintain its past earnings performance, as evidenced by a double-digit decline in net profit for the first quarter of its 2022 financial year.
In addition to the falling average selling price (ASP), the glove maker has to contend with a withhold release order (WRO) by the US Customs and Border Protection, which will affect about 20% of sales.
In a note, MIDF Research said it expects the impact of the US customs ban to take effect by the first half of FY22. It said based on its channel checks, the realised gains from exports to the US from Malaysia would take four to five months.
"With the immediate ban on 21st October CY21, we expect Supermax to divert its stocks meant for US to other places so the effect on earnings should happen before 1HFY22," it said.
However, TA Securities Research is doubtful over Supermax's attempts to redistribute sales to other markets.
"We believe that it will be a tall order for the group to divert its sales to other markets given the CBP ban and the increase in capacities by its competitors," it said.
Adding to the headwinds, the contract from the Federal Government of Canada has been put on hold.
While TA Securities believes the contracted prices from the Canadian government are at higher prices than current glove ASP, MIDF opines that the financial impact will be limited as Supermax has only one factory based in Malaysia.
After slashing ASP estimates by 15.6%, TA Securities lowered its earnings forecasts for FY22-23, but maintained projections for FY24.
"Following the earnings revision, we reduce our target price to RM1.22/share (previously 1.43/share) based on 14.0x CY23 EPS. Reiterate our sell recommendation on the stock," it said.
MIDF upgraded Supermax to "neutral" but left its target price unchanged at RM1.67.
In 1QFY21, Supermax's net profit of RM638.5mil was 19.1% lower from RM789.5mil a year ago, coming in at about 50% of market's full-year estimate.
is on an uphill battle to maintain its past earnings performance, as evidenced by a double-digit decline in net profit for the first quarter of its 2022 financial year.In addition to the falling average selling price (ASP), the glove maker has to contend with a withhold release order (WRO) by the US Customs and Border Protection, which will affect about 20% of sales.
In a note, MIDF Research said it expects the impact of the US customs ban to take effect by the first half of FY22. It said based on its channel checks, the realised gains from exports to the US from Malaysia would take four to five months.
"With the immediate ban on 21st October CY21, we expect Supermax to divert its stocks meant for US to other places so the effect on earnings should happen before 1HFY22," it said.
However, TA Securities Research is doubtful over Supermax's attempts to redistribute sales to other markets.
"We believe that it will be a tall order for the group to divert its sales to other markets given the CBP ban and the increase in capacities by its competitors," it said.
Adding to the headwinds, the contract from the Federal Government of Canada has been put on hold.
While TA Securities believes the contracted prices from the Canadian government are at higher prices than current glove ASP, MIDF opines that the financial impact will be limited as Supermax has only one factory based in Malaysia.
After slashing ASP estimates by 15.6%, TA Securities lowered its earnings forecasts for FY22-23, but maintained projections for FY24.
"Following the earnings revision, we reduce our target price to RM1.22/share (previously 1.43/share) based on 14.0x CY23 EPS. Reiterate our sell recommendation on the stock," it said.
MIDF upgraded Supermax to "neutral" but left its target price unchanged at RM1.67.
In 1QFY21, Supermax's net profit of RM638.5mil was 19.1% lower from RM789.5mil a year ago, coming in at about 50% of market's full-year estimate.
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