The beating of drums of trade war has slowly subsided and this is perhaps the single largest reason for some sort of confidence to return to markets
According to Bloomberg Economics published just a few days ago, there is now only a 27% probability that the US will go into a recession within the next 12 months.
It further added that while this remains as a warning sign, there’s no need to panic just yet and the chances of a recession, although higher than they were at the start of the year, is now lower than they were over the summer period and before previous downturns. So what has changed over the past couple of months?
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