Affin Hwang Capital chief economist Alan Tan said they saw a 30% probability of a global recession in 2020, based on the assumption that US-China trade tensions will escalate in the coming months.
KUALA LUMPUR: Warning of a very real possibility of a global economic recession next year, Affin Hwang Capital said Malaysia needs to implement immediate, short-term measures to cushion against the impact.
Its chief economist Alan Tan said they saw a 30% probability of a global recession in 2020, based on the assumption that US-China trade tensions will escalate in the coming months.
Speaking during a media briefing on Tuesday, Tan said there was a high risk of trade tensions escalating, with the US potentially imposing tariffs on the remaing US$300bil of goods from China, and the latter retaliating.
Malaysia, he said, must step up measures to support private consumption and boost investment into the country, in order to cushion against the impact of such a scenario.
"We need an acceleration in infrastructure spending and we must ensure that domestic demand remains healthy, in order to cushion against the impact of slowing exports" he told reporters.
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