Affin Hwang raises its estimates on Malaysian auto sales

Customers at a Perodua showroom. Filepic.

KUALA LUMPUR: New car model launches and year-end promotional campaigns may lead to higher sales volume for December, says Affin Hwang Capital research.

The research house raised its 2018 total industry volume (TIV) forecast to 600,000 units from 594,000 units previously due to the higher sales expectations. 

It maintained overweight on the sector, expecting sector earnings to remain healthy amidst top-line growth and sustained strength of the ringgit.

Its top sector picks are UMW Holdings for Toyota, Bermaz Auto for Mazda and both UMW and MBM Resources for Perodua.

For the month of November, Perodua sold 21,100 vehicles, up 26.9% year-on-year, while January-November sales reached 208,800 units, up 13.1% year-on-year.

"As such, Perodua can certainly exceed its 2018 sales target of 209k units. Perodua remains as the market leader with an 11M18-market share of 37.9% (11M17 at 35.4%), said Affin Hwang.

However, Proton's November sales volume was flat year-on-year at 4,800 units due to supply constraints during the month. 

Affin Hwang expects Proton sales to improve in December as teh all-new Proton X70 launched on Dec 12, coupled with the zero SST pricing policy and year-end promotions.

Meanwhile, the foreign car brands dominated the Malaysan market for the June to November period with 51.3% market share.

"Mazda continued to shine for the fifth consecutive month - achieving another strong monthly sale of 1.9k units in Nov 18 (only 59 units lesser from the tax holiday high in Aug 18).

"We believe Mazda’s sales momentum will remain healthy, considering the order backlog of ~3k units."

Toyota sales in November, however, were down to 3,900 units or 43.3% lower year-on-year as consumers awaited the all-new Camry and Vios, which will be launched in 4Q18-1Q19. 

European carmakers' 11M18 sales volume grew 12.6% to 24,400 units from highers sales volume from Mercedes Benz and BMW.