NEW YORK: Oil rallied on Tuesday as the biggest crude supply disruption persisted and Iran denied it held talks with the United States to end the war in the Gulf, contradicting US President Donald Trump, who said a deal could be reached soon.
Brent futures settled US$4.55, or 4.55%, higher at US$104.49 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate climbed US$4.22, or 4.79%, to US$92.35.
The war has all but halted shipments of about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz, causing what the International Energy Agency has called the biggest-ever oil supply disruption.
Iran told International Maritime Organization member states that "non-hostile vessels" may transit the Strait of Hormuz if they coordinate with Iranian authorities, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday after oil futures settled.
Brent and WTI were little changed from settlement after the report.
"The reality on the ground is unchanged," said Nikos Tzabouras, analyst at Jefferies-owned Tradu.com. "The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and supply disruptions linger, tightening the market."
Iran sent waves of missiles into Israel on Tuesday. Three senior Israeli officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Trump appeared determined to reach a deal, but that they thought it highly unlikely Iran would agree to US demands in any new round of negotiations.
"The likelihood of temporary shipping disruptions extending into long-term supply dislocations increases with each day that hostilities persist. We've seen global energy forecasts recalibrating from supply gluts into potential deficits," said Kenny Zhu, research analyst at Global X.
Pakistan's prime minister said on Tuesday he was willing to host talks between the US and Iran on ending the war in the Gulf.
The offer came a day after Trump ordered a five-day delay of attacks on Iran's power plants, saying the US had talks with unnamed Iranian officials that produced "major points of agreement," sending crude futures down more than 10%.
Iran on Monday denied it had engaged in negotiations with the United States.
"We're definitely getting mixed signals," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. "I think the market is pricing in worries that these talks aren't going to go well and that the war is going to continue."
Iran's negotiating posture has hardened since the war began, sources told Reuters, adding it would demand significant concessions from the US if mediation efforts lead to serious negotiations.
If the strait remains effectively shut until the end of April, Brent could reach US$150 a barrel, Macquarie said. That would exceed the all-time high of US$147 in 2008.
In the latest attacks on energy infrastructure across the region, a gas company office and a pressure-reduction station were hit in the Iranian city of Isfahan, while a projectile struck a gas pipeline feeding a power station in Khorramshahr, Iran's Fars news agency reported. — Reuters
