The country faces a pivotal week as neighbouring nations weigh the future of post-coup relations, while the United Nations’ top court threatens a verdict of genocide over its dark past.
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) is scheduled on Thursday to rule whether Myanmar committed genocide against its marginalised Muslim Rohingya minority.
The case looms over a three-day Asean meeting due to debate its policy freezing Myanmar out of summits since a 2021 putsch.
Rohingya activists say the pending judgment should haunt the minds of Asean leaders when they meet in the Philippines starting today.
“We are waiting to see what the outcome will be on that day, the judgment for everything we have been experiencing for generations,” said a 25-year-old Yangon-based Rohingya activist who requested anonymity for security reasons.
The UN court case and Asean’s diplomatic dilemma are separate issues on paper. But both converge on one man: Min Aung Hlaing.
The 11-nation Asean bloc has shunned Myanmar leaders from summits since his military coup turfed out the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi and sparked civil war.
The Hague case dates back to 2017, when Myanmar is accused of breaching the United Nations Genocide Convention by brutalising the Rohingya.
The judgment due Thursday will weigh state culpability, not individual guilt.
But Hlaing led the military as it spearheaded the killings, rape and arson targeting the Rohingya and driving nearly 750,000 into Bangladesh as refugees.
This April, he was installed as president after elections rejected by democracy watchdogs, and is waging a charm offensive seeking acceptance in the diplomatic fold.
“If the ICJ finds that Myanmar committed genocide, it would seriously weaken Min Aung Hlaing’s efforts,” said Wai Yan Phyo Naing, visiting scholar at Taiwan’s Academia Sinica.
“Any public association with him could create political and reputational risks, especially for governments that claim to support human rights and international law.”
But Myanmar has already secured signals of support to return to Asean.
As civilian president, Hlaing has had red-carpet welcomes in bloc members Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam.
Richard Horsey, senior Asia adviser at the International Crisis Group, said the ICJ ruling may have little impact on Min Aung Hlaing’s momentum.
“Governments willing to host him are unlikely to change course over a ruling addressed to the Myanmar state, which places no legal restriction on him personally,” he said. — AFP
