BANGKOK: President Donald Trump is coming to the region, amid expectations that Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) will choose a side without saying so outright.
After lengthy negotiations, he will make a brief stop in Manila for the Asean summit on Nov 16-18 before flying to Shenzhen, China, for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) leaders’ meeting.
The overlapping schedules have been adjusted to accommodate the US president–the Asean chair moved the summit from Nov 11-13, allowing Trump to meet Asean leaders on Nov 17 before departing for Shenzhen that evening.
Asean leaders attending the Apec meeting will also leave Manila that night.
The two-and-a-half-hour flight allows Trump to attend both summits.
The proximity highlights the close geographical relationship between Southeast Asia and southern China. His Air Force One will fly over the South China Sea.
In Manila, Trump has two clear objectives.
Since his last visit nearly a decade ago, he wants to make sure that US ties with Asean are not weakening because of his own weaponisation of tariff and trade rules.
He also wants the Asean members to support Pax Silica, a US-led plan to secure the supply chains behind artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced computer chips.
He will also benefit from sideline meetings or corridor encounters.
Trump’s trip to Manila and Shenzhen will test his administration’s diplomatic acumen and regional standing. Lest we forget, Trump’s record on Asean has hardly been favourable.
During his first presidency, he attended the Asean summit only once, in Manila in Novr 2017, but left midway through to return to Washington, leaving the chair perplexed.
Amid geopolitical tensions, Trump must navigate the South China Sea dispute carefully. Asean and China are trying to conclude negotiations on a code of conduct (COC) on the South China Sea.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr recently said good progress has been made on the COC.
At the upcoming summit, the chair is expected to issue a statement on that progress, but contentious points remain concerning compliance, enforcement and other key legal issues.
Trump’s presence in the region will test his ability to navigate complex diplomatic terrain.
If he appears too critical of China while showing support for the Philippines, it could spoil his planned visit to the APEC meeting in Shenzhen, where he will meet Xi for the third time.
Both leaders will have another opportunity to meet at the G20 summit in Florida in mid-December.
In response to Pax Silica, China launched the World AI Cooperation Organisation (WAICO) in Shanghai in July with 29 founding members, including five Asean members – Indonesia, Malaysia, Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar.
Southeast Asia will be the new battleground for the two rival systems over AI cooperation and technology, not least because it is set to be one of the world’s most dynamic regions in the coming years.
Both China and the US want to have their AI systems embedded in the region.
Once again, the region is being told, albeit in a whisper, to choose a side. It is a kind of loyalty test for the so-called allies and “friends of America”.
Washington has long liked to divide Asia into friends and rivals.
For two decades, each American president has launched new initiatives to preserve US influence and counter China’s economic and strategic influence in the Asia-Pacific.
But each effort has fallen short.
President Barack Obama pushed for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as part of his pivot to “rebalance” towards Asia.
The trade deal was intended to pre-empt China’s growing economic influence in the region.
But Trump withdrew from the TPP after becoming president in 2017.
The remaining members formed the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2018 without the US.
Then came President Joe Biden, who took a different approach. He launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) in May 2022 with 14 members: the US, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore, Brunei, India, Australia, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand and Fiji.
It has now stalled as Trump focuses on transactional engagements.
On AI, or “Super Intelligence”, as Trump called it, he has formed Pax Silica with a group of partners.
Aimed at developing countries in the Global South, it is seen as another attempt to push these nations towards one camp. It divides the world into US-led or China-led supply chains.
Washington’s recurring question is which side countries want to join.
As always, Asean members are not expected to dance to the American tune.
The Philippines is on the front lines of this strategic contest.
Manila has already joined Pax Silica and will likely give Trump the photo opportunity he wants. Its choice is easy to understand, given its fears over the South China Sea.
Most Asean members trade more with China than with the US, even though the latter remains a huge market.
Chinese investment has increased in recent years in new areas such as data centres and mineral processing plants, sectors Pax Silica seeks to shield from Beijing’s influence.
Among the Asean members, Singapore is the most pragmatic player.
It works closely with Washington on technology and security while keeping its doors open to investment and talent from China.
Its leaders have said they are pro-Singapore.
Other Asean members could learn from it. Thailand has not yet decided, as it wants to benefit from both initiatives.
For now, only Kazakhstan has been able to align with both Pax Silica and WAICO.
Within Asean, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia and Myanmar are in the WAICO camp.
Even with Trump’s presence in Manila, Asean is unlikely to yield easily to his pressure.
The bloc will keep its ties with China strong and should do the same with the US.
Asean matters to both Washington and Beijing.
The bloc also realises that AI technology could easily split it into rival camps.
Asean leaders will be polite to Trump, knowing full well his trademark disruptive and mercurial behaviour.
In his first term, he treated Asean as an afterthought.
In his second, however, he is more appreciative of the bloc’s strategic value.
He did come to Kuala Lumpur, albeit mostly to oversee the Thailand-Cambodia peace deal and boost his hopes for a Nobel Peace Prize.
So, credit goes to Trump for returning to the region.
Finally, Asean leaders are closely watching the US midterm election on Nov 3. America’s future will depend on MAGA voters.
Whatever has been agreed or signed in Manila could take a different turn under a new Congress.
Asean has experienced this before, with US promises coming and going.
The region welcomes Trump and US engagement and technology partnerships, but it will not shut out its biggest trading partner.
After all, ASEAN has never allowed itself to become a proxy for the superpowers.
