JAKARTA: President Prabowo Subianto rose to power two years ago on a landslide victory, riding waves of optimism fueled by promises that the former Army general would accelerate economic growth and deliver social programmes that would improve the lives of ordinary Indonesians.
But almost halfway through his five-year term, public sentiment has soured as his broad political support failed to translate into tangible policy outcomes that address their concerns, widening the disconnect between the government’s priorities and the reality on the ground.
A survey by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) found that Prabowo’s approval rating had dropped further to 44.5 per cent ahead of his presidency’s two-year anniversary, down from 81.2 per cent in November 2025.
The number of respondents expressing dissatisfaction with his performance meanwhile grew to 53.4 per cent from 16 per cent, marking the lowest level of public approval for a president since the 1998 reform movement.
The decline, according to the survey, stemmed from growing frustration with the increasing cost of living, rampant corruption and the President’s flagship free nutritious meal and Red and White Cooperatives programmes.
Persistent disconnect
Public support has declined despite some adjustments Prabowo made to the management of his programmes, primarily by placing trusted allies in key positions following a series of setbacks last year.
In July, the President tapped longtime Gerindra Party politician Sudaryono to lead the National Nutrition Agency (BGN). This marked the second leadership change at the agency overseeing the free meal initiative, which has faced public scrutiny over its huge budget, recurring food poisoning cases and a graft scandal.
But the new BGN chief’s reform efforts fell short of addressing fundamental concerns over the programme’s high costs and implementation as the administration decided to push ahead rather than undertake a comprehensive evaluation, said Yoes Kenawas, a senior researcher at the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI).
“There have been some changes but not many, and they are not moving in the direction that the public had hoped for,” Yoes said. He added that the programme’s substantial funding needs had come at the expense of other priorities: education, regional development, disaster response and environmental protection.
“Rather than listening to the public, the administration insists its policies are working. There remains a disconnect between what people experience on the ground and what the President sees,” he said.
Meanwhile, doubts persist over whether the national cooperatives programme can deliver on its promise of empowering rural communities.
The two programmes have been struggling to win public confidence: 61.3 per cent of respondents in the SMRC survey expressed dissatisfaction with the free meals programme, while 71 per cent expressed skepticism doubts that the cooperatives programme would succeed.
"Rather than boosting Prabowo's popularity among the public, the [two] programmes made him less appreciated. It's a paradox, as these are precisely the programmes that are supposed to be the administration’s main achievements,” SMRC executive director Deni Irvani said.
Loyalty over ability
Prabowo’s second year in office has been marked by a series of government reshuffles that have swelled his already massive cabinet. These involved reassigning some officials and creating new posts, redistributing power to both allies and more critical politicians.
“The repeated reshuffles are not simply about performance. They are also about ensuring that his ministers and aides demonstrate undivided loyalty to him,” said Wawan Mas’udi, a political science lecturer at Gadjah Mada University.
“Prabowo appears to be trying to create a sense of uncertainty among cabinet members, making it clear that anyone can be replaced at any time. He is sending a message that he is the only one who holds the power, who controls the government and who sets the agenda,” Wawan added.
His cabinet now comprises 49 ministers and 57 deputy ministers drawn from 10 political parties, most of which also hold seats in the House of Representatives. His ruling coalition has largely turned the legislature into a rubber stamp for his policy agenda and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the only party outside the coalition, has presented little meaningful opposition.
Despite the apparent unity, signs of latent tensions have surfaced, with the President reassigning several cabinet members linked to his predecessor Joko “Jokowi” Widodo to largely symbolic, less strategic roles.
However, Prabowo’s decision to retain them in his administration suggests that he intends to keep Jokowi close, at least for now.
Even with the relative political stability due to unwavering support from his coalition, however, Prabowo’s second year lacked significant improvement in governance as political considerations dominated cabinet appointments and space for public criticism shrank, said Nicky Fahrizal, a researcher in politics and social change at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies Indonesia.
“The President’s desire to accommodate different political groups in his administration has resulted in appointments that did not always match officials’ qualifications or expertise,” Nicky said. This was made worse by the absence of an effective self-correction mechanism due to Prabowo’s resistance to criticism, he added.
Critical year ahead
Prabowo’s third year may be critical for improving the implementation of his flagship programmes before competition intensifies ahead of the 2029 general election, analysts say. The President is also expected to continue consolidating support among political elites through additional reshuffles, both to strengthen loyalty and to prevent coalition partners from drifting away.
“As political competition begins to intensify ahead of the next election cycle, Prabowo could become even more concerned about defections from within his governing coalition,” said Yoes of LSI.
Kurnia Ramadhana of the Government Communication Agency (Bakom) said the decline in public approval would serve as input for the government to review its policies and bolster accountability.
Gerindra spokesperson Sugiat Santoso defended the President’s performance, arguing that the government’s achievements should be measured by economic indicators and policy outcomes rather than public perception alone.
Prabowo had focused on laying the foundation for a new development trajectory over the past two years, Sugiat said, noting that some flagship programmes were still in the early implementation stage and therefore were not yet ready for a full assessment.
“I am confident that in the third and fourth years, the results of the foundations laid by the President during his first two years will be felt more strongly,” he said, adding that the party expected this would improve public perception of Prabowo’s performance. - The Jakarta Post/ANN
