China and Indonesia’s recent joint naval exercise east of Taiwan has prompted speculation that other Southeast Asian countries may follow suit.
Last Wednesday’s drill – which one observer said may “lower the political threshold” for neighbouring countries – was followed by a meeting of the two countries’ foreign and defence ministers on Friday, where they discussed further military cooperation and a range of other topics, such as food security.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Indonesia was a priority for China’s foreign policy in Southeast Asia and both countries needed to strengthen strategic communication and co-ordination.
The so-called 2+2 mechanism with Indonesia was set up in 2023 and has served as the model for similar arrangements with Malaysia, Cambodia and Thailand, a treaty ally of the United States.
“We will jointly oppose unilateral bullying and power politics. We must also remain vigilant against attempts in the region to challenge the victorious outcomes in World War II and turn back the wheel of history. We should safeguard international fairness and justice, as well as the legitimate rights and interests of developing countries,” Wang said.
His Indonesian counterpart, Sugiono, said the two sides discussed strengthening food, energy and mineral security and advanced technology such as artificial intelligence.
“We also agreed to facilitate trade, including market exploration and the expansion of market access for Indonesia’s flagship commodities,” Sugiono said in a joint statement.
The two countries’ defence ministers – Dong Jun and Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin – met separately to discuss issues such as further personnel exchanges and greater cooperation between their respective arms industries.
Friday’s meeting came just days after the two navies held joint exercises in the sensitive waters east of Taiwan – an area where mainland China has stepped up its activities since the announcement in June that Japan and the Philippines will start talks on defining the maritime boundaries of their exclusive economic zones and continental shelves.
Beijing, which sees Taiwan as part of China and has never renounced the use of force to reunite it with the mainland, has described the move as a violation of its sovereignty.
Most countries, including Indonesia, Japan and the Philippines, do not recognise the island as an independent state.
The joint drills – the People’s Liberation Army’s first with a foreign navy in the area – triggered a protest from Taipei, which described it as a “provocation”.
Indonesia, however, sought to downplay the significance, describing the engagement as a non-combat passing exercise conducted by its frigate KRI I Gusti Ngurah Rai after returning from drills in Vladivostok in eastern Russia.
It also stressed that such manoeuvres aligned with its long-standing “free and active” foreign policy.
However, Indonesia’s willingness to operate alongside a Chinese warship in the hotly contested waters has prompted speculation about whether other Southeast Asian nations would follow suit.
As the most populous country and largest economy in Southeast Asia, Indonesia remains a crucial bellwether for the region.
Shortly after Jakarta restored diplomatic relations with Beijing in August 1990, Singapore also established formal ties.
James Char, an assistant professor with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said the joint exercise had some “signalling value” for Beijing.
“But I do not expect Jakarta, or for that matter, any of the other Southeast Asian countries, to suddenly shift away from its usual stance of refraining from engaging in any form of direct military activity in the Taiwan Strait,” he said.
Harryanto Aryodiguno, an associate professor with President University in West Java, said Jakarta’s decision to join the drills could signal a shift in how other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) viewed defence ties with Beijing.
“Indonesia’s participation could lower the political threshold for other Asean countries to consider similar forms of limited, non-combat naval cooperation with China,” Aryodiguno said.
If Indonesia could show that limited naval cooperation with China was possible without abandoning strategic autonomy, other Asean member states, particularly those with defence dialogue mechanisms with China, might be more comfortable in following its example, he added.
Beijing has steadily pushed for deeper institutional cooperation in the region.
To date, all the regional partners that have established a 2+2 mechanism with Beijing are from Southeast Asia. In March, China and Vietnam also set up a 3+3 mechanism that also covers public security.
Analysts said the location of last week’s joint exercise gave it special strategic weight.
“Beijing may use the activity to reinforce its political narrative that the one-China principle has practical consequences and that foreign military engagement near Taiwan can take place within a framework acceptable to China,” Aryodiguno said.
But he said that Indonesia’s own one-China policy did not mean it endorsed every Chinese maritime claim.
“Indonesia’s action may create a precedent, but it does not necessarily establish a regional pattern,” he said. -- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
