Speculation is growing that Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth is at increasing risk of losing his job, raising questions about the possible implications for US-China relations, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.
The sources, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to discuss the matter publicly, said Hegseth was “on the verge of losing his job”.
They cited the ongoing deadlock over Iran and a slew of negative media reports, with one source pointing to mounting concerns about the welfare of the crew on board the USS Abraham Lincoln. The aircraft carrier has been at sea for nine months, with personnel reportedly facing food shortages and poor sanitary conditions.
The source said the lack of a “solid breakthrough” on the Iran war had particularly angered President Donald Trump, while another put it bluntly: “[Hegseth’s] job is in danger”.
The uncertainty comes at a sensitive time for defence relations between the United States and China, which have shown signs of improvement since Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping met in Beijing in May.
One source familiar with engagements between the two countries’ armed forces said there had been contact at almost all levels during Trump’s second term and relations were the best they had been in more than a decade.
Weeks after the Beijing summit, Hegseth told a defence gathering that relations between the two countries were “better than they’ve been in many years”, saying Trump and Xi’s agreement to build a constructive relationship extended to the militaries too.
Last month, senior US officials met Chinese vice-minister for foreign affairs Ma Zhaoxu in Washington, with Alvaro Smith, deputy assistant defence secretary for China, Taiwan and Mongolia, saying communication between the two militaries was “stronger than it has been in years”.
“Under the leadership of Secretary Hegseth, we are actively repairing a once-broken military-to-military channel and making clear, steady progress,” Smith said, according to the Pentagon.
Zhao Minghao, a professor at Fudan University’s Institute of International Studies, said Trump might need “someone to take responsibility” for the Iran war.
Cabinet reshuffles were also typical ahead of US midterm elections, he added.
“If Hegseth is removed from his post, it would have some impact on communication between the Chinese and US militaries,” he said.
Zhao cited Hegseth’s previous meetings with his Chinese counterpart Dong Jun – including in Malaysia and during Trump’s visit to Beijing – saying that “if there’s a new secretary, there will definitely need to be a new process of [building a relationship]”.
But US sources said Hegseth’s possible exit would not necessarily derail the developing military relationship.
One said Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon undersecretary for policy, had been the point man for the talks, holding regular meetings with Chinese defence officials.
Colby was one of the officials who met Ma last month for what the Chinese foreign ministry described as an “in-depth” exchange of views.
According to one source familiar with the matter, Chinese officials have been impressed by Colby, who said Taiwan was not a vital existential interest for the US.
Beijing regards Taiwan as part of China and has never renounced the use of force to reunite it with the mainland.
The US, in common with most countries, does not recognise the self-ruled island as independent but is opposed to any attempt to seize it by force and is legally bound to supply it with weapons.
Another source described US-China military contacts as “very good right now”, with a third saying a new defence chief was likely to have little effect on military-to-military engagement unless Hegseth’s replacement was a China hawk.
Zhao said that if Colby stayed at the Pentagon, there would be “continuity going forward in military exchanges”.
Talks between the US and Chinese militaries at other working levels have also resumed, he added, in part because of Trump and Xi’s agreement to build a relationship based on “strategic stability”.
“The implication of that is restoring and strengthening China-US defence exchanges,” he said.
“This will continue because it is a very important intention on Trump’s part. With Xi’s coming visit to the US, I think strengthening military-to-military relations will also be a very important item on the agenda.”
Xi is expected to travel to Washington next month for what will be his first US state visit since 2015. -- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
