US Undersecretary of Defence for Policy Elbridge Colby avoided naming Beijing or addressing escalating tensions in the South China Sea during a speech in Manila on Monday, adopting a measured tone weeks before an expected meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Despite speaking in the capital of Washington’s oldest treaty ally in Asia, Colby made no direct reference to recent confrontations between Chinese and Philippine forces near the disputed Scarborough Shoal.
Instead, he sought to reassure regional allies that the United States was “definitely not disengaging from Asia”.
“We are not leaving; in fact, we are digging in, to ensure a favourable balance of power where it matters most,” Colby said during an event at a Manila think tank.
His omissions were particularly notable because two days earlier Washington had criticised Beijing for its actions over what it called a “destabilising” nature reserve at the reef and denying Filipino fishermen access to their traditional fishing grounds.
Some analysts attributed Colby’s restraint to Washington’s desire to avoid antagonising Beijing before the expected Trump-Xi meeting next month.
“With the Trump-Xi summit six weeks away, Colby likely thought it best to avoid commenting on China, lest he upset the fragile stability reached by the two leaders in Busan and Beijing,” said Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific programme at the German Marshall Fund.
Another possible consideration was Colby’s long-standing interest in visiting Beijing, Glaser noted. “Harsh criticism of Chinese activities in the region would have angered Beijing; mild criticism would have made Manila unhappy,” she added.
People familiar with the matter told the South China Morning Post that Colby’s long-awaited visit to Beijing was unlikely to take place before Xi’s expected visit to the United States next month.
But other analysts cautioned against interpreting Colby’s language as evidence of any substantive easing in Washington’s approach towards China.
Ken Moriyasu, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, argued that while Colby did not mention China by name, “almost everything he discussed was about China”.
“His emphasis on the first island chain, deterrence by denial, stronger allies and maintaining a favourable balance of power in Asia clearly identifies the strategic challenge without having to spell it out.”
Moriyasu added that it would be a “mistake to take up diplomatic language leading up to the summit as some sort of softening of strategy towards China”.
“There is a difference between tone management towards Beijing and the underlying defence strategy,” he said. “Colby’s Manila speech was hard-edged in strategic terms.”
The Philippines is the first stop on Colby’s Southeast Asian tour, which will also take him to Indonesia, Thailand and Cambodia. The visit comes amid renewed friction around Scarborough Shoal, which is claimed by both China and the Philippines but has been under Beijing’s effective control since 2012.
In a statement on Saturday, the US State Department criticised China for attempting to “enforce its destabilising ‘national nature reserve’ at Scarborough Reef and deny Filipino fishermen access to their traditional fishing ground”.
“This is yet another unilateral attempt by China to use dubious environmental and legal pretexts, backed by coercion, to advance its sweeping territorial and maritime claims in the South China Sea at the expense of its neighbours,” spokesman Tommy Pigott said.
“The United States stands with our ally, the Philippines, in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific.”
The US remarks were in response to China’s introduction of new management measures for the nature reserve it established around the shoal last year.
Tensions have escalated in the South China Sea in recent weeks, with multiple skirmishes between Filipino and Chinese forces.
In July, the Philippine coastguard said its Chinese counterpart had fired water cannons at Filipino vessels near the Scarborough Shoal and condemned what it called Beijing’s “dangerous and unprofessional actions”.
In a statement, China’s coastguard said it had imposed “control measures” and accused Manila’s vessels of “illegally” gathering in the waters.
Sourabh Gupta, a resident senior fellow at the Institute for China-America Studies, noted that Colby had “little or nothing to say about his host’s top priority” which is “keeping China at bay in the South China Sea”.
“By Colby’s philosophy though, that is an interest for Manila’s policymakers to elaborate on; it is not an issue for an American policymaker to dwell on. Realist and pragmatic,” he added.
The Philippine embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment. -- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
