China’s rare launch of a ballistic missile from a nuclear-powered submarine into the deep Pacific sent a strategic signal to the United States and regional neighbours, particularly Japan, amid concerns about Beijing’s military expansion.
Monday’s test is also likely to reinforce calls in Washington and among US allies for greater defence investment and closer security coordination as regional tensions continue to rise, according to analysts.
What happened during China’s submarine-launched missile test?
The launch served as a public demonstration of the operational readiness of China’s sea-based nuclear deterrent – the most survivable leg of its nuclear forces and a cornerstone of its second-strike capability – as Beijing continues its drive to establish a fully operational nuclear triad spanning land, sea and air.
It was China’s first known submarine-launched ballistic missile test since 1982 and came nearly two years after Beijing publicly announced the launch of a land-based intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific – a move that also drew concern from countries across the region.
“This missile test appears to have been intended more for strategic signalling than for technical experimentation or operational development,” said Zhao Tong, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“Although China has long been understood to possess this capability, this marks its first public demonstration.”
Despite Beijing’s confirmation of the launch and its advance notification to countries including Australia, Japan and New Zealand, questions remain over which missile was tested, where it was launched from and which flight path it followed.
Ankit Panda, the Stanton senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the launch “likely took place from the South China Sea” rather than the Bohai Sea in northern China, where some military observers and online enthusiasts had speculated it originated.
China’s submarine forces regularly operate in the vast waterway, although submarines venturing beyond their protected bastions would face a greater risk of being tracked by US anti-submarine warfare assets.
Ahead of the launch, Beijing issued two navigation warnings designating maritime areas for falling rocket debris – one covering waters near the Bohai Sea and another off China’s southern coast.
Japan said it had received advance notification from China on Sunday of falling rocket debris that could land within waters near its exclusive economic zone (EEZ). After the launch, however, Japan’s defence ministry said the missile had not flown through Japanese airspace or entered its EEZ.
Chinese military analysts said the missile was probably a JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile, according to a CCTV report on Tuesday.
Military expert Zhang Junshe said this conclusion was “based on images from the scene and the official announcement”. The JL-3 has a range of more than 10,000km (6,200 miles).
Zhang added that the launch platform could have been a Type 094 ballistic missile submarine or an upgraded variant, but it was also possible that the test involved a newer-generation strategic nuclear submarine.
China operates at least six Type 094 Jin-class ballistic missile submarines, which are believed to carry JL-2 missiles and may also be capable of deploying the longer-range JL-3, which can strike US territory from Chinese shores.
The People’s Liberation Army is also widely understood to be developing the more advanced Type 096 submarine.
Taiwan’s former foreign minister, Joseph Wu, said on social media that Beijing had launched a JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile that flew over the Philippines, describing the test as “a provocation that destabilises the Indo-Pacific”. Wu now serves as secretary general of Taiwan’s National Security Council.
Michael Bosack, founder of the Parley Policy Initiative and a former US-Japan alliance manager, said it was difficult to determine whether the missile was a JL-2 or a JL-3, noting that the latter could have flown on a trajectory that did not test its maximum range.
Even so, Bosack said the launch offered new insights into the development of China’s sea-based nuclear force.
Beijing has pushed for major investment in submarine production and infrastructure in recent years to catch up with Washington.
“It would have been much more significant if the Chinese launched from an open-water location into the South Pacific,” he said.
“That tells me there is still some research and development going into these systems that require them to operate closer to shore.”
Zhao said the test nevertheless reflected China’s entry into “a new phase” of expanding its ballistic missile submarine fleet and strengthening its undersea nuclear strike capability.
How did the US and Japan react to China’s missile test?
Washington struck a noticeably sharper tone than it did after China’s 2024 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test, underscoring growing US concern over Beijing’s expanding nuclear capabilities.
On Tuesday, the US said it had monitored China’s latest missile test. But unlike last time, it did not say whether it had received advance notification.
US Department of State spokesman Thomas Pigott said China’s “rapid and opaque nuclear weapons build-up” remained “of great concern” to the region and the world.
Following China’s 2024 ICBM launch into the Pacific, US officials described Beijing’s advance notification as “a step in the right direction” towards reducing the risk of miscalculation.
Yue Gang, a former PLA colonel, said the latest test showed that China’s ballistic missile submarines and submarine-launched ballistic missiles had reached a sufficient level of operational maturity, while sending a strategic message to both Washington and Tokyo.
He said the move was tailored to today’s geopolitical environment, particularly the uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s China policy.
“If the launch took place from the Bohai Sea, the missile’s debris would have landed near Japan’s doorstep, making it a calculated signal intended to unsettle and warn Tokyo,” he said.
Zhao said the timing of the launch might carry symbolic meaning amid deteriorating China-Japan relations.
“The launch also took place one day before the anniversary of the Marco Polo Bridge incident on July 7, 1937, which marked the beginning of China’s full-scale War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression, adding another layer of symbolic significance,” he said.
The test prompted coordinated expressions of concern from several regional governments.
Japan said it had “serious concerns” about China’s “expanding and intensifying” military activities.
Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong described the launch as “destabilising” for the region, while New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters said Wellington was “deeply concerned” about China’s testing.
Malcolm Davis, a senior defence analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, noted that the launch coincided with the signing of the Australia-Fiji defence alliance.
“Clearly this was a message from Beijing, to Australia and to Fiji and to other southwest Pacific states, that China will assert its power including through threat of use of force,” he said.
Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning urged countries not to “overinterpret” the test.
“China remains committed to the path of peaceful development and follows a self-defensive nuclear strategy,” Mao said during a press conference on Tuesday.
“China has consistently maintained its nuclear forces at the minimum level required for national security.”
What is the future of China’s nuclear triad after the Pacific test?
Analysts said the launch marked another milestone in China’s effort to demonstrate a fully operational nuclear triad – the ability to deliver nuclear weapons from land, sea and air.
Following the land-based ICBM test in 2024 and this week’s submarine-launched ballistic missile test, attention is now turning to whether Beijing will display the air-based leg of its nuclear deterrent.
China unveiled its nuclear-capable air-launched ballistic missile, the Jinglei-1 (JL-1), during a military parade last year, signalling progress towards completing its triad.
“Following the full-range flight test of a land-based intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific in 2024, this latest test raises the question of whether China will publicly conduct the first flight test of its air-launched ballistic missile in the coming years, completing the public demonstration of its nuclear triad,” Zhao said.
James Holmes, a maritime strategy expert at the US Naval War College, said he would not be surprised if Beijing conducted a public test of the bomber component of its nuclear forces.
“It would firm up deterrence while reassuring China that it has a working triad – the hardware works and crews know how to use it,” he said.
Analysts said the launch was likely to reinforce defence planning across the region.
Sebastian Maslow, an associate professor and international security expert at the University of Tokyo, said the test would influence Japan’s strategic planning.
“It will help Japan to defend its current course of increasing defence spending to modernise its military,” he said, noting that the test came as Tokyo reviewed key national security documents.
Misato Matsuoka, an associate professor at Teikyo University, said that while the launch was unlikely to fundamentally alter the regional strategic balance on its own, it would reinforce the broader trend towards military competition in the Indo-Pacific.
She added that Japan was likely to continue strengthening coordination with the United States. -- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
