CEBU: Under the sweltering heat in this central Philippine province known for its beaches, convoys swept down palm-lined roads carrying South-East Asian leaders bound for the Asean Summit.
Cebu was chosen in part to highlight the country’s tourism appeal, but is now hosting a shortened summit dominated by mounting anxieties over fuel prices, inflation and supply chain disruptions triggered by the Middle East conflict.
It is being closely watched to see how the regional grouping responds to the external shocks threatening to strain fragile economies.
Talks got off to a good start on May 7 with Asean economic ministers pledging to – among other things – move on the Asean Power Grid, a long-term plan to connect electricity networks in member countries to a regional grid.
They urged Asean to accelerate the development of a framework on submarine power cables, which is essential for energy imports, said a statement from Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI).
The Enhanced Asean Guidelines for Strengthening Resilience and Repair of Submarine Cables, updated from the 2019 guidelines and adopted in January, outline international best practices that member states can adopt to better protect and maintain submarine cables.
The ministers also pledged to strengthen regional supply chain resilience and keep trade flowing amid fears of wider disruptions.
In the MTI statement, Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister and Trade and Industry Minister Gan Kim Yong said Asean members were moving to accelerate regional integration initiatives.
These include the upgraded Asean Trade in Goods Agreement to ensure the free flow of goods in the region, as well as the Digital Economy Framework Agreement to facilitate cross-border digital trade and data flows.
But it is not all business as usual. Manila, the Asean chair, is taking what Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr described as a “bare-bones” approach for the summit, compressing it from a five-day event to two, with urgent discussions centred mainly on oil, food security and the safety of South-East Asians across the world.
More than 600 preparatory meetings originally planned as in-person events were moved online to save costs.
Philippine Foreign Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro told her counterparts on May 7 that Asean now had to adjust to more immediate concerns, noting that the region imports 66 per cent of its crude oil.
“Our discussions reflected Asean’s resolve to act with urgency, coordinate closely and respond collectively to these emerging challenges,” Lazaro said.
She added that discussions at the online preparatory meetings held by foreign and economic ministers had emphasised that Asean needed to strengthen its coordination and institutional readiness in times of crisis.
The Philippines, as chair, has pushed for the ratification of the Asean Framework Agreement on Petroleum Security, which allows member states to share fuel reserves during periods of supply disruption.
Energy ministers had in April called for the “expeditious” finalisation of the petroleum-sharing agreement in the light of the Iran war.
Geopolitical analyst Don McLain Gill said the energy crisis could push Asean countries towards deeper practical cooperation because “individual capacity is significantly limited” when responding to supply chain and energy shocks alone.
“There is a need for collective action,” Gill said, though he noted that there is still a long way to go before the framework on submarine cables can be operationalised.
“At the operational level, there is an absence of response mechanisms for cable incidents within South-East Asia. Also, there needs to be more inter-regional cooperation on managing subsea cables with nations that have regulatory and technical expertise,” he explained.
He also said the crisis could accelerate Asean’s shift towards renewable energy despite the political and economic difficulties involved in transitioning away from fossil fuels.
“When you are faced with problems emanating from non-renewable energy sources, obviously, one of the steps would be to go renewable. But we know that it’s not going to be very simple. It is a difficult transition,” he said.
All heads of state of the 11 Asean members are attending the Leaders’ Summit on May 8, except for Myanmar, which will be represented by its Foreign Ministry’s Permanent Secretary.
The regional grouping has yet to reach a consensus on whether to recognise the military-led government’s recent elections.
Before the Middle East crisis escalated, Manila had sought to use its 2026 chairmanship to highlight Asean’s longer-term ambitions, from digital trade and green investments, to Timor-Leste’s full integration into the regional grouping.
The scaled-down format has also muted what Manila had initially hoped would be a broader Asean chairmanship showcasing regional connectivity, tourism and economic integration beyond the Philippine capital.
Politically sensitive and longstanding issues such as Myanmar, the Thailand-Cambodia border crisis and the South China Sea dispute remain on the summit agenda, though they will now take a back seat.
Lazaro told Asean ministers on May 7 that she would brief them, in her capacity as special envoy of the Asean chair to Myanmar, on developments in the country and the implementation of the Five-Point Consensus, the regional grouping’s main framework for engaging with Naypyitaw.
On the eve of the summit, President Marcos convened a trilateral meeting with the leaders of Thailand and Cambodia, after which he said both countries had agreed to pursue peaceful dialogue and confidence-building measures to prevent further escalation along their disputed border.
Regarding the South China Sea, Asean spokesman Dominic Imperial said member states remain committed to negotiations on the long-delayed Code of Conduct aimed at managing tensions in the disputed waters.
While acknowledging that the negotiations remain separate from formal Asean Summit talks, he said officials were “encouraged by the progress” and pointed to more frequent meetings between Asean and Chinese negotiators in recent months.
President Marcos, however, signalled that he expected the Asean declaration on maritime cooperation to remain broadly worded despite tensions in the disputed waters.
Asked by reporters on May 7 whether the South China Sea would be explicitly included or if Manila would push for stronger language, Marcos replied: “I think in general terms, those things have been pretty much decided.”
Geopolitical analyst Dindo Manhit from Manila-based think-tank Stratbase Institute said Asean’s cautious approach reflects the grouping’s longstanding preference for broad consensus language over explicitly naming disputes where member states hold different positions.
“There could never be any maritime cooperation that will not factor in international rules like the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea,” Professor Manhit told ST.
“If Asean’s 11 member countries ensure that international rule of law will dictate maritime cooperation, that would be good.”
Among the documents expected to be endorsed during the summit are a leaders’ statement on the Middle East crisis, a declaration on maritime cooperation, and the Cebu Protocol amending the Asean Charter, the first amendment since the charter was signed in 2007. - The Straits Times/ANN
