BANGKOK: Thailand’s tourism industry is facing a double hit from volatile exchange rates and rising airfares, with foreign arrivals now expected to reach only 30–32 million in 2026, according to the Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA).
Sisdivachr Cheewarattanaporn, honorary president and senior adviser to ATTA, said the fluctuating baht had already affected spending by foreign tourists. The pressure has now been compounded by the prolonged Middle East conflict, which has dragged on for two months and pushed global oil prices higher.
He said the impact was feeding through to more expensive air tickets, adding that foreign tourist arrivals to Thailand were likely to fall further in the second quarter and that the weakness could extend into the second half of 2026.
Overall spending by foreign tourists has also changed. Shopping in Thailand has declined compared with the pre-Covid-19 period, when visitors were more willing to buy brand-name products, local goods, souvenirs and gifts.
Chinese tourists, once known for heavy shopping, are now more selective and tend to buy only consumer products that are not available in China. Asean tourists are still shopping to some extent because of their interest in Thai products, while European tourists generally focus on travel rather than shopping.
“The tourism sector is now facing a double impact from baht volatility and the fighting in the Middle East, which has pushed up airfares,” Sisdivachr said.
“This has raised the overall cost of each trip. At the same time, airlines have announced temporary route cancellations or flight reductions during the summer schedule. Flights that continue to operate have had to raise fares because of higher fuel costs, so foreign tourists are likely to delay their travel plans.”
Sisdivachr said Thailand’s tourism outlook had become extremely difficult to assess on a quarterly basis because the war remained prolonged and uncertain.
If the situation returns to normal, tourism could recover quickly, he said. But if persistent global uncertainty becomes the “new normal”, travellers may choose not to travel.
However, tourism operators cannot afford to stand still, he added. They must continue stimulating travel to support businesses and help sustain the Thai economy.
“We need to monitor whether the Middle East conflict will spill over into the high season in the fourth quarter,” he said.
“International politics is not something that can be resolved easily, and many countries are involved, including the United States, Iran and Israel. If the conflict ends soon, we hope oil prices will fall and tourism will return to normal during the fourth-quarter high season this year.”
ATTA’s latest assessment is that Thailand will receive around 30–32 million foreign tourists in 2026.
The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), meanwhile, expects foreign arrivals to reach 30–34 million, down 18% from its previous target of 36.7 million. That forecast is based on the assumption that the Middle East situation will ease within one to three months. - The Nation/ANN
