JAKARTA (The Jakarta Post/ANN): The authorities across Indonesia have rolled out measures to tackle land and forest fires and safeguard food supplies as the warming El Nino climate pattern is expected to return in the second half of 2026, raising the risk of a prolonged dry season.
The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) is monitoring Pacific Ocean conditions to track the potential development of El Nino, with its latest assessment showing up to an 83 per cent chance of weak to moderate intensity emerging mid-year.
El Niño typically brings hotter and drier conditions, extending the dry season and reducing rainfall across the archipelago. The phenomenon previously pushed rice prices to record highs during the 2023–2024 cycle.
“Naturally, a stronger El Niño intensity leads to a greater reduction in rainfall,” BMKG climatology deputy head Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan told The Jakarta Post on Friday.
Although the exact intensity remained uncertain, the agency has warned of a drier and longer dry season this year due to natural climatic variability in the archipelago.
Most of Indonesia is currently transitioning into the dry season between April and June, with peak conditions expected in August.
Meanwhile, the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) has warned of a potentially strong El Niño between April and October, describing its possible intensity as “Godzilla-like.” BRIN said impacts would vary across the country, from severe droughts in rice-producing regions in northern Java to increased fire risks in Sumatra and Kalimantan due to higher temperatures.
In the first three months of 2026, fires burned at least 42,000 hectares, about four times the size of Paris, according to the Forestry Ministry. Most hot spots were recorded in Riau, West and Central Kalimantan, and East Nusa Tenggara.
“This year, the drought is expected to come earlier and last longer. Forest and land fires in 2026 are likely to be a greater collective threat than last year,” Environment Minister Raja Juli Antoni said on Monday.
In response, the Forestry Ministry, BMKG and the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) have stepped up mitigation efforts, including water-bombing, peatland rewetting and cloud seeding to trigger rainfall in certain locations.
Water supply key concern
Agriculture Minister Andi Amran Sulaiman said earlier this week that the government is monitoring food prices closely amid extreme weather risks, stressing that national rice stocks had reached a “historically high level” of 28 million tonnes in April, including standing crops, which he said would be sufficient for the next 11 months.
“Our [food security] is currently very safe, not only safe but highly secure. Moving forward, we will be focusing on the measures required to face El Niño,” he said on Tuesday, according to an official statement. Rice is a staple for Indonesia’s 280 million people with an average annual consumption of about 92 kilograms per capita, making the country one of the world’s largest consumers.
However, experts warn that the sector remains highly vulnerable due to its dependence on water. Prolonged dry seasons could threaten national food security, said agroclimatology expert Bayu Dwi Apri Nugroho of Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta.
“Rice and maize will bear the brunt because they are water-intensive crops. Without sufficient water, growth is stunted and harvests can ultimately fail,” he said on Thursday, adding that improved water infrastructure is crucial to mitigate risks.
