Brazil is on course to exhaust its annual beef export quota to China by September, industry researchers said on Tuesday, as the government warns that uncontrolled shipments could trigger a collapse in domestic prices and jobs in the cattle sector.
If the pace of exports recorded in January is maintained, Brazil will fill its 2026 quota of 1.106 million tonnes well before year end, according to the Centre for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics at the University of Sao Paulo, known as Cepea.
In the first month of 2026 alone, Brazil shipped 119,630 tonnes of beef to China, the largest volume ever recorded for January.
The surge comes despite new restrictions imposed by Beijing in December that limit how much beef major suppliers can send under a lower tariff regime.
China announced that imports exceeding a fixed country quota in 2026 would face a 55 per cent tariff, sharply above the standard 12 per cent rate. The measure applies to Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and the United States. For Brazil, the ceiling was set at about 1.1 million tonnes.
Shipments above that threshold risk becoming commercially unviable and, in an internal letter obtained by the Brazilian newspaper of record Folha de S. Paulo last week, the Ministry of Agriculture said the absence of a coordinated response could lead to “strong disorganisation of trade flows” and raise the risk of a “collapse in prices and employment” across the beef supply chain.
The ministry has urged the government’s foreign trade chamber to approve a national export quota system that would regulate how much each private exporter can sell to China under the tariff ceiling.
The idea is that, without such controls, companies will rush to secure contracts early in the year, crowding out smaller players and driving down prices in a scramble for market share.
The list of Brazilian exporters to China includes global meatpacking groups such as JBS, Minerva and Marfrig.
According to the ministry’s assessment, based on last year’s data, Chinese demand for imported beef could fall by around 35 per cent this year under the new safeguard regime, equivalent to roughly 600,000 tonnes.
Internal ministerial analysis showed that excess production initially destined for China would be diverted to other markets, depressing prices and squeezing cattle producers in regions heavily dependent on livestock.
“In the absence of any national mechanism to manage exports in the face of the ceiling imposed by the importer, there are incentives for disorderly competition among Brazilian companies,” the document stated.
Yet the latest trade data show no immediate slowdown. Brazil exported 258,940 tonnes of beef worldwide in January, a record for the month and higher than the previous best January performance registered in 2025, according to figures from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade. China accounted for 46.3 per cent of the total, close to last year’s average share of 47.67 per cent.
Separate data compiled by the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries showed that China imported 123,200 tonnes of Brazilian beef in January, about 35 per cent more than in the same month a year earlier.
Researchers at Cepea said the figures confirmed strong external demand even in a more restrictive environment. They noted that if January’s export rhythm continues, the Brazilian allocation for 2026 would be exhausted in September.
There is still uncertainty over how much of the quota has already been consumed, as part of January’s shipments were loaded before China formally announced the safeguard measures. But the Brazilian government said that cargoes dispatched before the announcement should not count towards the new ceiling.
Beijing justified the higher tariff on volumes above the quota as a measure to protect its domestic market.
Beef prices in China have been under pressure in recent years amid oversupply and weaker consumption linked to the country’s economic slowdown. Meanwhile, imports have surged, turning China into the single most important destination for exporters in Latin America and Australia.
Earlier this month, China rejected a request from Brazil to redistribute unused portions of other countries’ quotas among suppliers that had already exceeded their own limits.
The proposal now under discussion in Brasilia would allocate export licences based on each company’s recent sales history to China, while reserving a portion for new and smaller exporters. Automatic blocks would be imposed on shipments that exceed authorised volumes. -- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
