In the days that followed Japanese leader Sanae Takaichi’s controversial remarks over Taiwan in November, Beijing convened a rare meeting with Southeast Asian envoys to rally regional support for its campaign against Japan – but that effort has so far gained little traction.
Multiple sources familiar with the matter told the South China Morning Post that China had summoned most Southeast Asian ambassadors or their deputies late last year, framing the meeting as a channel to hear the region’s views on Takaichi’s comments.
But at the meeting – chaired by a deputy director general-level official – China also urged individual countries to stand with Beijing and support its position on the Japanese prime minister’s comments, according to sources who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Sources said the Southeast Asian envoys had been told they should support Beijing’s position as countries in the region were victims of Japanese aggression during World War II.
The meeting took place days after Takaichi suggested on November 7 that Japan could deploy its military forces in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, as it would constitute a survival-threatening situation for Tokyo. It was the first time a sitting Japanese prime minister had made such remarks and a departure from Japan’s long-held strategic ambiguity.
Beijing, which sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary, fiercely protested against the comments, viewing them as a sign of Tokyo’s desire to return to its pre-war path of militarism.
Tensions have continued to mount, with China urging its citizens to avoid travel to Japan, reimposing a suspension of Japanese seafood imports, and banning the export of “dual-use” products to the country.
The rare meeting with high-level Southeast Asian diplomats in Beijing underscored the extent to which China was drumming up support for its campaign against Japan. But it also showed the limitations of its diplomacy – even among neighbouring countries over which it wields considerable influence.
The meeting has so far yielded little success for Beijing. Myanmar, which counts China as its biggest backer in the region, was the sole Southeast Asian country to publicly condemn Takaichi’s comments.
Zaw Min Tun, Myanmar’s deputy minister of information, said on November 22 that “Takaichi’s remarks show no lessons learned from history and demonstrate neither remorse nor responsibility for the crimes committed by Japan across Asia”.
“Southeast Asian countries, including Myanmar, once suffered deeply from Japanese fascism, and Myanmar firmly condemns any possible resurgence of fascist tendencies in Japan,” he told Chinese state news agency Xinhua.
Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, said China’s effort to lobby support from Southeast Asia could be viewed in the same vein as its engagement with visiting foreign leaders in recent weeks, which stressed Beijing’s one-China policy.
French President Emmanuel Macron, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer all reaffirmed the one-China policy in their respective meetings in Beijing with Chinese President Xi Jinping, according to official statements.
“China is trying to isolate Japan and make them feel like there’s a united front and support for its one-China policy,” Chan said.
He added that China, as Southeast Asia’s largest trading partner, hoped to sway countries in the region given its tremendous influence there.
“It’s relatively low-hanging fruit. It’s an area where China can accomplish more and strong-arm countries a bit more than they could in, for example, Europe where obviously relations are a little more fraught or in places like Africa which are just further afield,” he said.
He added that Beijing was trying to “find some kindred spirits” by invoking their shared experience of Japanese militarism. But in reality, countries recognised that the world had changed, and “relitigating or dragging up the demons of history is not particularly useful”, he said.
“Asean leaders just want to stay out of this fight as much as possible,” Chan said, referring to the 11-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
This outreach to Southeast Asia is not entirely new, as Beijing has previously rallied support from the region in its rows with Tokyo.
In 2005, when Japan sought a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, China encouraged Southeast Asian officials to oppose Tokyo’s bid.
At that time, ties between China and Japan were strained following then Japanese prime minister Junichiro Koizumi’s visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, which Beijing views as a symbol of Japan’s militarism.
Large demonstrations were held in major Chinese cities to protest against Japan’s Security Council bid as well as its controversial history textbooks. The sentiment resonated with some in Southeast Asia, particularly within ethnic Chinese communities in countries such as Malaysia, where there were public protests against Japan’s bid.
Even so, Japan received broad support from most Southeast Asian nations, but failed to secure a Security Council seat largely because of opposition from China.
Following the November meeting with Southeast Asian envoys, sources said Beijing appeared to have slightly changed its tack. One source said Chinese officials had asked countries to maintain a neutral stance on the Japan issue while others said Beijing was still “subtly” lobbying for support.
Chan said that while China’s recent efforts to persuade Southeast Asian countries to publicly condemn Japan might have failed, Beijing had been more successful in deterring other countries from offering Tokyo diplomatic support.
“That’s more of a medium-term and long-term play, but I think you will see greater reticence from foreign leaders – not just in Tokyo but in Canada and Delhi and Washington and Seoul – going forward, being much more hesitant to engage with Taiwan diplomatically and to discuss out in the open contingency planning,” he said.
-- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
