Former Move Forward Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat posing with supporters during a general election campaign rally of the People's Party on Jan 25, 2026. - Reuters
BANGKOK: The People’s Party, which rose from the ashes of the group that won Thailand’s 2023 election only to be blocked from power, may need a landslide victory to avoid a similar fate in Feb 8 polls.
The party, which leads rivals in all credible surveys, is the latest incarnation of a series of pro-democracy parties that had to disband amid establishment opposition to their reform plans.
Its immediate predecessor, Move Forward, was dissolved by a court in 2024 over its campaign to amend the country’s lese majeste law, which punishes criticism of the monarchy with up to 15 years in jail.
"We must not accept this anymore. And the only way to do that is to win by a wide margin, to win big, and to keep winning for longer,” former Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat told a roaring crowd in Bangkok on Jan 25.
Pita was banned from running for office for 10 years and now campaigns for People’s Party’s leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut.
"We must win so decisively that the second-ranked party doesn’t dare form a government against us.”
The party advocates extensive reforms of the economy and state, and expanded social protections.
Of Thailand’s main four parties, it appears to be the biggest spender, estimating annual costs of about 742 billion baht (US$24 billion) for its agenda, including elderly allowances and large-scale public projects.
Reform-minded voters swept Move Forward to a surprise victory in the 2023 election. But conservative lawmakers and military-appointed senators blocked Pita from becoming prime minister.
The establishment - consisting of the military, senior bureaucrats, judges and business elites - has since then used legal challenges to remove two successive premiers from a populist party backed by another political rival, ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra.
In 2026, the stakes are high for the People’s Party, whose roots go back to the pro-democracy movement that bloomed in 2019 after years of military rule.
Backed by largely young and urban Thais seeking democratic reforms, the progressive group is entering its third election under growing pressure to show it can translate its supporters’ calls for change into actual power.
The election is also critical for Thailand, where growth has languished behind that of neighbours Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore.
Investors want signs that Thailand can produce a stable administration with the mandate to govern. Prolonged uncertainty, or another contested transfer of power, would reinforce concerns about policy paralysis in one of South-East Asia’s largest economies.
Although the lower house alone will elect the next prime minister this time, which makes the path to power appear less obstructed, the People’s Party will still have difficulties finding allies prepared to risk an establishment backlash, said Napon Jatusripitak, director of the Center for Politics and Geopolitics at Bangkok-based think tank Thailand Future.
"This would likely be the closest the People’s Party has come to reaching the highest office, but the chances still appear slim,” said Napon.
"Thailand’s conservative establishment is unlikely to tolerate a government in which the People’s Party plays a meaningful role, given its past stance on amending the lese majeste law and advancing other reform agendas.”
Even if the party does manage to rally enough support to make Natthaphong prime minister, he will likely face legal challenges, Napon said.
Natthaphong, 38, said in a debate earlier this week that the party has managed risks around the potential challenges by having two other prime ministerial candidates.
"This is the best time for the people to demonstrate their power and form a government that can bring about real change,” he said.
The People’s Party, the largest opposition bloc in parliament, was supported by 34.2% of respondents in a survey by the National Institute of Development Administration this week, widening its lead over rival Bhumjaithai, at 22.6%, in a two-way race to the top.
But there’s still a chance the progressive bloc may not win the most votes on election day.
Nationalist fervour has risen due to Thailand’s border conflict with Cambodia, which has boosted support for the military. That has led to criticism of the progressives over previous calls for military reform, while boosting the appeal of conservative parties like the ruling Bhumjaithai of Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul.
After a court dismissed his predecessor, Anutin took power in September with the help of the People’s Party on a pledge to advance efforts to amend the military-backed constitution. That deal angered some People’s Party supporters, many of whom see Anutin as part of the establishment.
The People’s Party has also recently sought to shed its image as a movement of inexperienced idealists, giving more prominence to technocrats and former civil servants in its lineup.
It has avoided Move Forward’s language targeting the military and business monopolies, leaving the lese majeste law entirely out of its campaign. It instead emphasises the need for sound economic management and an administrative overhaul.
By signalling a willingness to compromise and engage in coalition politics, the party hopes to undermine any justification for anyone to block its path to power. But that may further alienate parts of its base.
"It’s an identity crisis. Their strength came from having a clear and distinct identity that differentiates them from old politics,” said Stithorn Thananithichot, a political science lecturer at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University.
"Now, some people are questioning that.” - Bloomberg
