China reportedly sticking to its soybean deal with US, but worries remain

China is estimated to have secured more than half of the 12 million tonnes of soybeans that Washington says Beijing committed to purchase by early 2026, based on US government data and market conventions that analysts say usually indicate China, though little has been shipped so far, heightening concerns over potential cancellations.

While the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has officially documented nearly 4 million tonnes in sales explicitly to China, 3 million metric tonnes currently sit in the “unknown destinations” category. The practice of initial “unknown” bookings, later routed to China, is a long-standing pattern in the soybean trade, often used by state buyers to stabilise prices before physical shipment.