Americans tend to believe that China wants to create a new world order to knock the United States off its perch, but the results of a survey released this week suggest Chinese people are far more nuanced and flexible in this view, providing avenues to reduce US-China tension, experts said on Wednesday.
The survey of ordinary Chinese, by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and The Carter Centre, depicts a public that is optimistic about their nation’s future, economy, military and culture.
They also regard their country as the greatest in the world – a view on ample display during this week’s military parade marking the 80th anniversary of China’s victory against the Japanese and the end of World War II.
“There was a lot more subtlety in the data with a plurality, 48 per cent, saying that China’s interested in a shared leadership role,” according to Paul Heer, a senior fellow with the Chicago Council and former intelligence officer.
“Shared leadership implies an acceptance of peaceful coexistence with the United States and the West. I think the Chinese are curious. They’re still sceptical that we’re still interested in them,” he said.
But authors of the survey also cautioned that some of their findings were likely to have been influenced by self-censorship and concern that the conversation was being monitored.
Respondents cited Russia and North Korea as China’s closest friends, for instance, a view that “counters common sense in China”, according to Yawei Liu, a senior adviser with The Carter Centre and a co-author of the survey.
“Russia totally discriminates against the Chinese. Russia still fears the so-called Yellow Peril. So I think it’s more the security concerns driving the Chinese people to say that Russia is most reliable,” he said.
Likewise with the North Koreans, despite Beijing having come to Pyongyang’s aid during the Korean war, he added.
“I think most of the Chinese feel North Koreans are the most ungrateful bunch of people on Earth. So many Chinese died. And everyone thinks China has a huge impact on their decision-making. China has so very little.”
And while Chinese take major cues from their political leaders and state-controlled media, experts said the survey results also suggested that Chinese were not the homogenous, unthinking bloc blindly following their government that stereotypes sometimes suggested.
Public opinion specialist with the Chicago Council Dina Smeltz, who worked on the survey, said that while Beijing had mobilised opinion through media campaigns, particularly involving border disputes, at other times it had struggled to rein in the Chinese public when it became too militant or nationalistic.
Beijing was often less keen than many of its citizens in wanting to push the US out of East Asia, analysts said, arguing that the Pacific was large enough to accommodate both giants and indirectly acknowledging that the US had helped to maintain regional stability.
Also clear in the survey was that most Chinese believe the US is determined to contain China’s rise and “at the heart of the Chinese people is a siege mentality”, according to Liu.
They felt surrounded by unfriendly neighbours, from Vietnam, the Philippines, South Korea, Japan and the US, he said.
And even as state media touted the 26 heads of state attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and military parade this week, there were barely any from Europe, with most from Central Asia and Southeast Asia.
“They’re all second-, third-tier countries so the Chinese feel [that] not only is the US determined to contain the rights of China, [it] actually is leading a global coalition to deny China what it so deserves,” Liu said.
Nevertheless, the results suggest that Chinese people like Americans and want more cooperation on trade and cultural exchanges.
“A lot of Chinese feel there are many, many areas where the two countries can work together,” Liu said. “Fundamentally, what the survey shows is that the destinies of these two countries are interconnected. It’s up to the people to uphold peace, but it’s really up to the leaders to find a path forward.”
The survey of 1,002 adults was conducted between April and June by randomly dialling personal mobile phone numbers across China, excluding Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau.
