BANGKOK (Reuters): Thailand's export growth slowed in July but beat forecasts as shipments accelerated ahead of US tariffs, but growth is set to slow over the rest of the year after those tariffs took effect, the commerce ministry said on Monday.
Customs-cleared exports rose 11% in July from a year earlier, the ministry said, beating a forecast 9.6% year-on-year increase in a Reuters poll, but down from a rise of 15.5% in June.
In the first seven months of 2025, exports, a key driver of the economy, rose 14.4% from a year earlier. The ministry is maintaining its forecast for export growth of 2% to 3% for the year, although there is a chance that it will be higher thanks to the strong start.
Exports are expected to slow in the remaining five months of the year after importers made their purchases earlier to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, head of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, told a press conference.
"Achieving double-digit export growth for the year is unlikely," he said.
In July, exports to the United States, Thailand's largest market, jumped 31.4% from a year earlier, while shipments to China rose 23.1%, ministry data showed.
The U.S. set a 19% tariff on imported goods from Thailand, lower than the 36% rate announced earlier and in line with other countries in the region.
There are still uncertainties relating to U.S. tariffs on transshipments via Thailand from third countries.
The United States was Thailand's largest export market last year, accounting for 18.3% of total shipments, valued at $55 billion.
In July, imports rose 5.1% in July from a year earlier, higher than a forecast rise of 4.90%.
That led to a trade surplus of $0.32 billion in July, higher than the expected $0.5 billion deficit.
(Reporting by Orathai Sriring, Kitiphong Thaichareon and Thanadech Staporncharnchai; Editing by David Stanway) - Reuters
